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Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion.
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Published on Wednesday September 27, 2017 at 1600
UTC
Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions
on Tuesday September 26, 2017-
Solar activity had been
moderate.
Earth's geomagnetic field had been at a minor
geomagnetic storming level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers had
been 90.2 90.7 90.0.
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) had been at 40.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a
0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will
probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar
cycle 25 began.
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Officially there had been 3 earth facing sunspot
groups (SSG).
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12681 was located near S13W07 with a beta magnetic signature. It
was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated
medium in size M class solar flare.
Recurrent
sunspot group (SSG) #12682 (ex #2673) was located near S11E47 with an alpha
simple magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class
solar flare.
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12683 was located near N12E61 with with an alpha simple magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar
flare.
There
had been 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG)
located near
S09W12.
There
had been no returning (recurrent) sunspot group.
There
had been 1 small in size C class solar flare. It was a
C1.8.
There
had been no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no partially earth aimed coronal
mass ejection (CME).
There had been no directly (geoeffective) or
partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME) D layer ionosphere involved
high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0).
The high latitude absorption via earths over
ionized D layer is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is
caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field
lines into the equatorial ring current.
There had been no earth aimed solar flare related
x-ray day side D layer involved solar fade out (SFO
There had been no directly earth aimed
(geoeffective) or partially earth aimed collapsing magnetic filament
eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K
index (Kp) had been at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 1 1 0 0 0 2.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K
index had been at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
0 0 2 1 1 2 1 2.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A
index (Ap) had ranged between
7 and 2,
which was at quiet geomagnetic
conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices
are-
0-7- quiet
8-15- unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just
got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux
had been at C1.76.
The 24
hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field had been at approximately
-17 nT south.
The larger the negative value the further
south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar
regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) had ranged
between
-47
and +27 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind
speed ranged had ranged between
411
and 275 km/s.
There
was 1 recurrent large in size trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole (CH)
#826 (#822).
It’s
attached high speed solar wind stream (HSS) was impacting earth’s geomagnetic
field in a negative manner in the form of minor geomagnetic storming
level.
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed
without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200
or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for
routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting
mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than
7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid
latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days
consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1
for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst
index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the
equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index
tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and
indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF
signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units
below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater
than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for
several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data
from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities,
educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including
mine).
However this daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella,
W4HM.
