The
fall/spring equinox begins today at 4:02 pm EDT/2002 UTC on Friday September 22,
2017.
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Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion.
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Published on Friday September 22, 2017 at 1500
UTC
Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions
on Thursday September 21, 2017-
Solar activity had been low.
Earth's geomagnetic field had been at a quiet
geomagnetic level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers had
been 72.7 73.0 74.8.
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) had been 22.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase. Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a
0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will
probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar
cycle 25 began.
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Officially there had been 2 earth facing sunspot
groups (SSG).
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12680 was located near N08W80 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare. It
was setting around the west limb of the sun.
Sunspot group (SSG) #12681 was located near S13E59
with a simple alpha magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in
size C class solar flare. It was approaching the west limb of the
sun.
There
had been 2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG)
located near
N12E13,
N05E66.
There
had been no returning (recurrent) sunspot groups.
(((((On
Friday September 22, 2017 I say that monster sunspot group #12673 will rise
above the east limb of the sun on approximately Sunday September 24,
2017.)))))
There
had been no small in size C class solar flare or larger.
There had been no directly earth aimed
(geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been no partially earth aimed coronal
mass ejection (CME).
There had been no directly (geoeffective) or
partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude
energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0).
The high latitude absorption via earths over
ionized D layer is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is
caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field
lines into the equatorial ring current.
There had been no earth aimed solar flare related
x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO).
There had been no directly earth aimed
(geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K
index (Kp) had been at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 2 2 1 0 1 2.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K
index had been at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 3 2 2 2 1 1.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A
index (Ap) had ranged between
9 and 2,
which was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic
conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices
are-
0-7- quiet
8-15-
unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux
had been at A9.2.
The 24
hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field had been at approximately
-4 nT south.
The larger the negative value the further
south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar
regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) had ranged
between
-26
and -11 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind
speed ranged had ranged between
459
and 352 km/s.
There
was 1 recurrent large in size earth facing transequatorial coronal hole (CH)
#826 (#822).
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed
without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200
or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for
routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting
mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than
7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid
latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days
consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1
for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst
index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the
equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index
tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and
indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF
signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units
below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater
than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for
several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data
from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities,
educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including
mine).
However this daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella,
W4HM
