:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Jul 27 1656 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 20 - 26 July 2015
Solar activity reached low levels this period.
Region 2389 (S11,
L=164, class/area=Dai/80 on 25 Jul) produced three
low-level C-class
flares throughout the period which were the largest
observed events.
Region 2389 produced a C1 flare at 24/0315 UTC, a C2/Sf
flare at
24/1444 UTC, and a C1 flare at 26/1234 UTC but none of these
events
resulted in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were
Earth-directed.
Region 2390 (S15, L=198, class/area=Dac/130 on 26 Jul)
underwent
moderate penumbral development and increased in magnetic
complexity
late in the period, but remained largely unproductive.
No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery
throughout the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 20, 26 Jul with moderate levels
observed on 21-22,
and 24-25 Jul. The electron flux decreased to normal
levels on 23
Jul in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity
attributed to
a combination of CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS)
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 23 Jul due to a combination of the
arrival of the 19
Jul CME (filament eruption) and the onset of a weak
positive
polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were observed at 23/0300-0600
UTC
and 23/1800-2100 UTC and G1 storm conditions were observed
at
23/0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field was at quiet or quiet
to
unsettled levels for the remainder of the period under an ambient
solar
wind environment followed by weak CH HSS influence.
FORECAST OF SOLAR
AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 27 JULY - 22 AUGUST 2015
Solar activity is
expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the period with a slight
chance of M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity between 28 Jul-10 Aug
due to
the return of Region 2381 (N14, L=074) which produced two
M-class
flares last rotation.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29
Jul, 01, 07, and
17 Aug with high levels expected throughout the remainder of
the
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic
storm levels on 07 Aug with active levels expected on 29 Jul,
02,
08-09, and 19 Aug, all in response to the influence of recurrent
CH
HSS. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is
expected
throughout the remainder of the period under an ambient solar
wind
environment.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 27 1657 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-07-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Jul 27 100
5 2
2015 Jul 28 105 10 3
2015 Jul 29
110 18 4
2015 Jul 30 110 10 3
2015
Jul 31 110 5 2
2015 Aug 01 115
10 3
2015 Aug 02 110 12 4
2015 Aug 03
115 5 2
2015 Aug 04 115 5 2
2015
Aug 05 110 5 2
2015 Aug 06 105
10 3
2015 Aug 07 100 20 5
2015 Aug 08
100 15 4
2015 Aug 09 100 15 4
2015
Aug 10 95 8 3
2015 Aug 11 95
5 2
2015 Aug 12 95 5 2
2015 Aug 13
95 5 2
2015 Aug 14 90 5 2
2015
Aug 15 85 5 2
2015 Aug 16 100
10 3
2015 Aug 17 100 5 2
2015 Aug 18
105 5 2
2015 Aug 19 110 15 4
2015
Aug 20 105 10 3
2015 Aug 21 110
5 2
2015 Aug 22 110 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
