:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 13 - 19 July 2015
Solar activity began the period at very low
levels on 13 Jul but
increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from
Region 2381
(N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17,
L=271,
class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210
UTC
respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul.
Ground
observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered
near
N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not
geoeffective.
Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced
a C1
flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio
sweep
(est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO
C2
coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with
an
estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not
expected to be
geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare
was observed at 19/1040
UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree
long filament eruption located
in the SW quadrant centered near
S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent
WSA-Enlil model output,
revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the
northern flank of
the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23
Jul.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate
levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul
due to effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity reached
minor storm levels on 13 Jul due
to effects from a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream.
Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled
periods were
observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided.
Quiet
conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 20 JULY - 15 AUGUST
2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27
Jul.
Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to
the
return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to
low
levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul
before an
anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected
to
redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26
Jul
followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following
elevated
wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive
polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels
are expected from 03-05 Aug
and 10-15 Aug following recurrent
negative and positive polarity high speed
streams respectively.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
quiet to active
levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH
HSS
followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects
subside.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to
a
possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close
succession
by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions
are expected to
prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected from 31
Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms
likely on 01 Aug when
the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet
conditions are
expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are
likely
from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity
HSS,
followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled
conditions
from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook
Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 20 0509 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-07-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Jul 20 100
10 4
2015 Jul 21 100 5 2
2015 Jul 22
105 5 2
2015 Jul 23 110 15 4
2015
Jul 24 105 10 4
2015 Jul 25 110
5 2
2015 Jul 26 110 5 2
2015 Jul 27
105 5 2
2015 Jul 28 110 5 2
2015
Jul 29 110 5 2
2015 Jul 30 110
5 2
2015 Jul 31 110 18 5
2015 Aug 01
115 25 5
2015 Aug 02 115 12 4
2015
Aug 03 115 5 2
2015 Aug 04 115
5 2
2015 Aug 05 110 5 2
2015 Aug 06
105 20 5
2015 Aug 07 100 25 5
2015
Aug 08 100 15 4
2015 Aug 09 100
10 4
2015 Aug 10 95 8 3
2015 Aug 11
95 5 2
2015 Aug 12 95 5 2
2015
Aug 13 95 5 2
2015 Aug 14 90
5 2
2015 Aug 15 85 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
