:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Apr 11 1312 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 April 2022
Solar activity was at low levels through the period with numerous
C-class flares observed. Rgn 2978 (S19, L=011, class/area Eko/670 on
30 Mar) produced a majority of the C-class activity with the largest
event a C4 observed at 10/0241 UTC. Additional C-class activity was
observed from Rgns 2967 (N20, L=075, class/area Eho/530 on 26 Mar),
2979 (S22, L=030, class/area Azz/030 on 29 Mar), 2982 (S20, L=334,
class/area Bxo/040 on 04 Apr), 2983 (N20, L=328, class/area Hsx/040
on 02 Apr) and 2985 (S20, L=289, class/area Hax/050 on 05 Apr).
During the period, numerous filament eruptions were observed on 03,
04 and 07 Apr that impacted Earth on 06-10 Apr. More details below.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 04-07 Apr with a peak flux of 3,920 pfu observed on
04 Apr. Low to moderate levels were observed on 08-10 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to strong (G3) levels
during the period. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 04
Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. This was followed by
quiet levels on 05 Apr. Quiet to unsettled levels occured on 06 Apr
due to weak effects from the 03 Apr CME. 07 Apr saw quiet to active
levels due to combined effects from the 03 and 04 CMEs. 08-09 Apr
witnessed quiet to active levels as effects from the 04 Apr CME
persisted. On 10 Apr, effects from the 07 CME, combined with
negative polarity CH HSS influence, increased geomagnetic levels to
Minor to Strong (G1-G3) storm levels. On the 10th, wind speeds were
initially in the 450-475 km/s range, became elevated to about 530
km/s near 10/0400 UTC before settling down to about 485 km/s by the
end of the day. Density peaked to 36 ppcm at about 10/0215 UTC,
total field Bt increased to 19 nT and the Bz component dived south
to -15 nT at 10/0513 UTC. The phi angle switched from a positive
orientation to a mostly negative sector at 10/0214 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 April - 07 May 2022
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on
15-28 Apr due to the return of old Rgn 2975 (N13, L=088). Very low
to low activity is expected on 11-14 Apr, 29-30 Apr and 01-07 May.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-29 Apr and 05-07
May with moderate to high levels on 30 Apr and 01-04 May in response
to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels on 11, 14-15, 20-21, 23-24, 29-30 Apr, 01 and 06-07 May, all
due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are anticipated
for the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 11 1313 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-04-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Apr 11 98 12 4
2022 Apr 12 95 5 2
2022 Apr 13 95 5 2
2022 Apr 14 95 5 2
2022 Apr 15 98 12 4
2022 Apr 16 102 8 3
2022 Apr 17 106 5 2
2022 Apr 18 106 5 2
2022 Apr 19 106 5 2
2022 Apr 20 106 10 3
2022 Apr 21 106 10 3
2022 Apr 22 110 5 2
2022 Apr 23 110 15 4
2022 Apr 24 115 10 3
2022 Apr 25 118 8 3
2022 Apr 26 118 5 2
2022 Apr 27 118 5 2
2022 Apr 28 118 5 2
2022 Apr 29 116 18 5
2022 Apr 30 116 12 4
2022 May 01 116 8 3
2022 May 02 116 5 2
2022 May 03 116 5 2
2022 May 04 116 5 2
2022 May 05 116 5 2
2022 May 06 116 8 3
2022 May 07 112 15 4
