Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0516 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 - 29 November 2020

Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest event was an M4
X-ray flare from a region just around the SE limb. Associated with
the flare was a Type II radio sweep (765 km/s), a tenflare (240 sfu)
and a CME signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
29/1325 UTC. Modeling and analysis of the event suggested only the
far periphery had the potential to interact with Earth around 02
Dec.

Of the numbered regions currently on the visible disk, 2786 (S17,
L=343, class/area, Cko/1000 on 25 Nov) was the largest. It produced
several C-class X-ray flares as it rotated across the disk, the
strongest being a C3/Sf at 26/1253 UTC. The leader spot remained
stable throughout the reporting period while the intermediate and
trailer spots exhibited frequent, but short-lived new spot
emergence.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels throughout the reporting period, with the
highest flux of 2,430 pfu observed at 23/1700 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled. Numerous
periods of weakly enhanced Bt, combined with frequent sustained
periods of southward Bz, produced periods of unsettled conditions on
23 Nov and 25-29 Nov. 24 Nov remained quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 November - 26 December 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
R1-R2 (Minor - Moderate) radio blackouts on 30 Nov - 14 Dec, due
primarily to the flare potential from a region just around the SE
limb. Very low levels are expected on 15-18 Dec and low levels are
expected from 19-26 Dec.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected range from moderate to high levels. High levels are
expected on 20-26 Dec while moderate levels are anticipated for the
remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in electron flux
are due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. Potential influence from the periphery of
the 29 Nov CME may cause periods of active conditions around 01-02
Dec. Coronal hole influence is expected to produce active conditions
on 18 Dec, G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 19 Dec, and unsettled
conditions as influence wanes on 20 Dec. Weak interaction with the
current sheet is likely to produce unsettled conditions on 23-25
Dec. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0517 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-11-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Nov 30     115           5          2
2020 Dec 01     113          12          4
2020 Dec 02     113          12          4
2020 Dec 03     113           5          2
2020 Dec 04     110           5          2
2020 Dec 05     105           5          2
2020 Dec 06     103           5          2
2020 Dec 07      95           5          2
2020 Dec 08      95           5          2
2020 Dec 09      92           5          2
2020 Dec 10      88           5          2
2020 Dec 11      85           5          2
2020 Dec 12      85           5          2
2020 Dec 13      82           5          2
2020 Dec 14      82           5          2
2020 Dec 15      82           5          2
2020 Dec 16      82           5          2
2020 Dec 17      85           5          2
2020 Dec 18      90          12          4
2020 Dec 19     100          20          5
2020 Dec 20     105           8          3
2020 Dec 21     105           5          2
2020 Dec 22     108           5          2
2020 Dec 23     110           8          3
2020 Dec 24     110          10          3
2020 Dec 25     110           8          3
2020 Dec 26     115           5          2