lunedì 23 aprile 2018

Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Apr 23 0149 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 April 2018

Solar activity was very low. Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area
Dao/130 on 22 Apr) produced the strongest flare of the period, a B5
at 20/1704 UTC. The region continued slow growth through the end of
the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal to high levels on 10-20 Apr; high levels on 22 Apr and
moderate to high levels for the remaining days of the reporting
period. The peak flux observed was 24,100 pfu at 21/2120 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet until 20 Apr, when unsettled to
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic conditions were observed in response to
CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field peaked at 23 nT
around 20/0510 UTC and slowly declined to around 5 nT by late on 20
Apr. Solar wind speeds were increased from around 290 km/s to a peak
of near 620 km/s during the HSS proper late on 20 Apr. The
geomagnetic response decreased to quiet to unsettled conditions over
21 Apr and finally to quiet on 22 Apr as influence from the CH HSS
waned.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 23 APRIL - 19 MAY 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 23-30 Apr and 07-19
May; normal to moderate levels are expected from 01-06 May. Elevated
levels of electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
26 Apr, 06 May, 09-10 May and 19 May; active levels are expected on
27 Apr, 07-08 Apr and 18 May; G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
conditions are likely on 17 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic
field activity are associated with the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remaining days of the outlook
periods are expected to be mostly quiet.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 23 0149 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-04-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Apr 23      75           5          2
2018 Apr 24      75           5          2
2018 Apr 25      75           5          2
2018 Apr 26      75           8          3
2018 Apr 27      75          12          4
2018 Apr 28      75           5          2
2018 Apr 29      75           5          2
2018 Apr 30      75           5          2
2018 May 01      75           5          2
2018 May 02      75           5          2
2018 May 03      70           5          2
2018 May 04      70           5          2
2018 May 05      70           5          2
2018 May 06      70          10          3
2018 May 07      70          15          4
2018 May 08      70          12          4
2018 May 09      70          10          3
2018 May 10      70           8          3
2018 May 11      70           5          2
2018 May 12      70           5          2
2018 May 13      70           5          2
2018 May 14      70           5          2
2018 May 15      70           5          2
2018 May 16      70           5          2
2018 May 17      75          42          6
2018 May 18      75          12          4
2018 May 19      75           8          3
(SWPC via DXLD)