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Published
on Wednesday September 6, 2017 at 1900 UTC
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions on Tuesday September 5,
2017-
Solar
activity was high.
Earth's
geomagnetic field was at an active level.
The three
daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 127.4 120.5
122.6.
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 122.
This is
the highest daily SSN in a very long time.
In 2017
officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1
year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.
In 2016
officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
As we
move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25
the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will
see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I
forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that
forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually
nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred
in the early 1800's.
Other
than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine
when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.
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Officially there were 5 earth facing sun spot groups
(SSG).
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12673 was located near S09W28 with a complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar
flare and a large in size X class solar flare.
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12674 was located near N13W14 with a complex beta magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and
an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12675 was located near S07W89 with a complex beta magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and
an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare. It was setting around the west
limb of the sun.
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12676 was located near S09W77 with a complex beta magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a
small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar
flare.
Sunspot
group (SSG) #12677 was located near N17E38 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar
flare.
Newly
emerged sunspot group (SSG) #12678 was located near N10E46 with a complex beta
magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar
flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar
flare.
There was
1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG) near
N17E00.
There
were 7 small in size C class solar flares. The largest was a
C9.8.
There
were 5 medium in size M class solar flares. The largest was a
M4.2.
There
were 2 large in size X class solar flares. The largest was an
X9.3.
There was
1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). It was a full
halo that should reach earth’s geomagnetic field on approximately Thursday
September 7, 2017 and possibly produce moderate (Kp-6) to strong (Kp-7)
geomagnetic storming conditions.
There was
no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was
1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high
and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) that occurred and may
continue for several more days.
The 24
hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background level >10 MeV
(10+0), peaking at 142 pfu.
The high
latitude absorption is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption
is caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic
field lines into the equatorial ring current.
There was
1 earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out
(SFO) that occurred.
No
directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption
occurred.
The 24
hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at active to quiet
geomagnetic conditions of
4 3 2 1 1
2 2 1.
The 24
hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions of
3 3 3 2 3
3 3 1.
The K(p)
geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3-
unsettled
4-
active
5- minor
geomagnetic storming
6-
moderate
7-
strong
8-
severe
9-
extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged
between
22 and
5
which was
at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap
geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15
unsettled
16-29-
active
30-49-
minor geomagnetic storm
50-99-
major
100-400-
severe
>401- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24
hour period maximum background x-ray flux was at X9.33.
The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the
vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at
approximately -3 nT.
The larger the negative value the further south-north
that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar
regions.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-34 and
-3 nT.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
599 and
444 km/s.
There was
a recurrent medium in size directly earth facing (geoeffective) southern
hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #823 (#819).
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!!
The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave
propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella,
W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed
without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of
the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the
best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something
that happens rarely.
1.)
Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0
best.
2.) A
daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A
daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.)
Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.)
Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2
for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is
best.
6.)
Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.)
Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1
best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.)
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates
a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of
medium frequency RF
signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A
-10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time
after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive
number is best.
11.)
Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical
frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF
signals.
12.)
Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.)
Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A
solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
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Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I
use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities,
educational institutions and private individuals, to produce my daily solar,
space and geomagnetic discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the
U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However
the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar,
space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free
without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space
and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its
entirety and give me credit for it.
