:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 08 - 14 August 2016
Solar activity was at very low to low levels
with C-class activity
observed on 08, 09, 11 and 14 Aug. Region 2574 (N05,
L=173,
class/area Dho/290 on 09 Aug) was the most active region
recording
six C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf observed
at
09/0042 UTC. Regions 2571 (N13, L=268, class/area Dac/200 on 08
Aug)
and 2572 (N13, L=320, class/area Dao/110 on 07 Aug) each
produced
weak C-class flares on 08 Aug. The period ended with a C1
flare
observed at 14/1936 UTC from an unnumbered region on the NE limb.
A
few CMEs were observed during the period, but none had an
Earth-directed
component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels throughout the summary period. A maximum of 12,032 pfu
was
observed at 13/1745 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to
active levels on 08 Aug
through early on 12 Aug due to effects from a
positive polarity CH
HSS. Quiet levels were observed for the remainder of the
period.
Solar wind speeds reached a maximum speed of about 675 km/s
at
10/0830 UTC. Bt ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component
varied
between +7 to -5 nT early in the period. The phi angle was in
a
predominately positive sector throughout the period.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 15 AUGUST-10 SEPTEMBER 2016
Solar activity
is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity through the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at high levels on 15, 19-23, 26-28, 31 Aug and
01-10
Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of
the
outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 16 and 30-31 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15, 17-19, 24-25 Aug
and
01-08 Sep, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly
quiet
conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-08-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Aug 15 90
12 4
2016 Aug 16 90 18 5
2016 Aug 17
90 10 4
2016 Aug 18 90 8 3
2016
Aug 19 85 8 3
2016 Aug 20 80
5 2
2016 Aug 21 80 5 2
2016 Aug 22
75 5 2
2016 Aug 23 75 5 2
2016
Aug 24 75 15 4
2016 Aug 25 75
15 4
2016 Aug 26 75 5 2
2016 Aug 27
75 5 2
2016 Aug 28 75 5 2
2016
Aug 29 75 15 4
2016 Aug 30 75
25 5
2016 Aug 31 75 18 5
2016 Sep 01
75 15 4
2016 Sep 02 80 15 4
2016
Sep 03 85 12 4
2016 Sep 04 90
12 4
2016 Sep 05 90 15 4
2016 Sep 06
90 15 4
2016 Sep 07 90 8 3
2016
Sep 08 90 10 3
2016 Sep 09 90
5 2
2016 Sep 10 90 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
