:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 08 0119 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 01 - 07 August 2016
Solar activity was at very low to moderate
levels. Very low levels
occurred on 01-04 and 06 Aug with low levels on 05
Aug and low to
moderate levels on 07 Aug. Region 2572 (N13, L=320,
class/area
Dao/110 on 07 Aug) produced a C1/Sf flare observed at 05/1012
UTC.
On 07 Aug, activity increased to moderate levels with an impulsive
M1
(R1-Minor) x-ray event observed at 07/1444 UTC from an active
region just
beyond the SW limb. 07 Aug also saw numerous C-class
flares. Region 2571
(N12, L=267, class/area Dai/150 on 07 Aug)
produced a C5 event at 07/2232
UTC. New Region 2573 (N08, L=177,
class/area Dso/060 on 07 Aug) produced a
C8/Sf at 07/1509 UTC. No
Earth-directed CMES were observed during the summary
period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
moderate flux levels on 02-03 Aug and high flux levels on 01 and
04-07
Aug. The highest flux reading was 16, 206 pfu observed at
06/1445 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.
The
period began on 01 Aug at quiet levels under a nominal solar
wind
regime. Midday on 02 Aug, activity levels increased to unsettled
to
minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to shock enhancement from the
arrival
of the 28 Jul CME coupled with a CIR in advance of a
recurrent, positive
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased
from about 310 km/s early on 02
Aug to near 550 km/s by midday on 03
Aug. Unsettled to minor storm levels
persisted through 03 Aug.
Wind speeds increased further on 04-05 Aug
with a peak speed of near
675 km/s recorded late on 05 Aug. Winds speeds
began a slow decay on
06 Aug. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were
observed on 04-06
Aug. By 07 Aug, wind speeds decreased to about 500 km/s as
effects
from the CH HSS waned. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels
were
observed on 07 Aug.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
08 AUGUST-03 SEPTEMBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 08-20 Aug
due to the flare
potential from Regions 2573 and 2574. Very low to low levels
are
expected on 21 Aug - 01 Sep. An increase to low levels with a
chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are expected on 02-03
Sep
with the return of Regions 2573 and 2574.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high flux levels on 08-15, 22-23
and 26-28 Aug and
again on 31 Aug-03 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the
outlook
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
unsettled to G1
(Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug and again on 31 Aug due to
recurrent
CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
09-11,
15-16, 18-19, 24-25, 29 and 30-31 Aug along with 01-03 Sep, all
due
to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expeced
for
the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 08 0119 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-08-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Aug 08 100
20 5
2016 Aug 09 105 8 3
2016 Aug 10
100 12 4
2016 Aug 11 100 10 3
2016
Aug 12 100 8 3
2016 Aug 13 100
5 2
2016 Aug 14 95 5 2
2016 Aug 15
95 12 4
2016 Aug 16 95 12 4
2016
Aug 17 95 5 2
2016 Aug 18 90
8 3
2016 Aug 19 90 8 3
2016 Aug 20
85 5 2
2016 Aug 21 75 5 2
2016
Aug 22 75 5 2
2016 Aug 23 75
5 2
2016 Aug 24 75 15 4
2016 Aug 25
75 15 4
2016 Aug 26 75 5 2
2016
Aug 27 80 5 2
2016 Aug 28 80
5 2
2016 Aug 29 80 15 4
2016 Aug 30
80 25 5
2016 Aug 31 80 18 4
2016
Sep 01 80 15 4
2016 Sep 02 85
15 4
2016 Sep 03 95 12 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
