:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 November - 05 December 2021
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Region 2898 (S24,
L=236, class/area Dao/140 on 27 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 05/0719
UTC, the largest of the period. The region had recently rotated
around the W limb before producing the event. With the exception of
Region 2904 (S27, L=80, class/area Bxo/30), which developed recently
in the SW quadrant, all other regions were either in decay or
quietly rotated off of the visible disk.
Other Earth-directed activity included a ~40 degree filament
eruption centered near S45W10, beginning around 05/1103 UTC in
SDOAIA 304 imagery. A subsequent faint CME signature was noted in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/1412 UTC.
Preliminary analysis and modeling suggests a slow-moving
Earth-directed component that'll arrive at Earth 09-10 Dec.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from moderate to high levels. High levels were reached on 01-05 Dec,
with the highest recorded flux of 4,870 pfu at 03/1520 UTC. Normal
to moderate levels were observed on 29-30 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels. G1 conditions were observed late on 30 Nov in response
to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar
wind conditions surrounding the event consisted of a total magnetic
field strength increase to a peak of 15 nT, the Bz component rotated
as far south as -12 nT and solar wind speeds increased from ~350
km/s to ~475 km/s. Active conditions were observed after as the HSS
proper set in over 01 Dec, and on 29 Nov in response to waning weak
transient influence. Periodic unsettled conditions were observed
over 02-05 Dec.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 December - 01 January 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely
on 06-08 Dec, 11-12 Dec, 20-23 Dec and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period. All increases in electron flux are due to the influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 17 Dec and
27-28 Dec; active conditions are likely on 13 Dec, 18 Dec and 29
Dec; unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Dec, 10-11 Dec, 14 Dec,
19-20 Dec and 30 Dec - 01 Jan. All elevated levels of geomagnetic
activity are in anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent
CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
quiet levels.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-12-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Dec 06 82 8 3
2021 Dec 07 80 8 3
2021 Dec 08 80 5 2
2021 Dec 09 80 5 2
2021 Dec 10 82 10 3
2021 Dec 11 82 8 3
2021 Dec 12 82 5 2
2021 Dec 13 80 12 4
2021 Dec 14 80 10 3
2021 Dec 15 82 5 2
2021 Dec 16 85 5 2
2021 Dec 17 85 15 5
2021 Dec 18 85 12 4
2021 Dec 19 87 10 3
2021 Dec 20 87 8 3
2021 Dec 21 87 5 2
2021 Dec 22 87 5 2
2021 Dec 23 86 5 2
2021 Dec 24 86 5 2
2021 Dec 25 86 5 2
2021 Dec 26 86 5 2
2021 Dec 27 86 15 5
2021 Dec 28 84 18 5
2021 Dec 29 82 12 4
2021 Dec 30 82 8 3
2021 Dec 31 82 8 3
2022 Jan 01 82 8 3
