Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder Feb 1

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Feb 01 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 - 31 January 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels. A few B-class x-ray events
were observed from Regions 2799 (N22, L=021, class/area Dro/020 on
25 Jan) and 2800 (N19, L=306, class/area Bxo/010 on 27 Jan). No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 25-26 Jan. High levels were reached on
27-31 Jan with a maximum flux of 5,068 pfu observed on 31/1540 UTC.
High levels were due to HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels
on 25 Jan, quiet to active levels on 26 Jan and quiet to unsettled
levels on 27-28 Jan. This activity was due to influence from a
geoeffective, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet levels were observed
on 29-31 Jan. During the highlight period, wind speeds peaked at
about 605 km/s early on 26 Jan, total field reached 10 nT on 25 Jan
and the Bz component reached -9 nT on 25 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 February - 27 February 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 01-10 Feb and 22-27 Feb, all due to
HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 11-21 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 01 Feb and unsettled to active levels on 02-03 Feb, all
due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 07-08 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
G1 (Minor) storm levels are anticipated on 21 Feb followed by
unsettled to active levels on 22-23 Feb, all due to negative
polarity CH HSS influence. Predominately quiet conditions are
expected for 03-06 Feb, 09-20 Feb and 24-27 Feb.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 01 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-02-01
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Feb 01      73          18          5
2021 Feb 02      73          12          4
2021 Feb 03      72           8          3
2021 Feb 04      72           5          2
2021 Feb 05      72           5          2
2021 Feb 06      72           5          2
2021 Feb 07      72          10          4
2021 Feb 08      72          10          3
2021 Feb 09      74           5          2
2021 Feb 10      74           5          2
2021 Feb 11      74           5          2
2021 Feb 12      76           5          2
2021 Feb 13      76           5          2
2021 Feb 14      76           5          2
2021 Feb 15      76           5          2
2021 Feb 16      76           5          2
2021 Feb 17      78           5          2
2021 Feb 18      78           5          2
2021 Feb 19      78           5          2
2021 Feb 20      78           5          2
2021 Feb 21      78          20          5
2021 Feb 22      78          16          4
2021 Feb 23      76          12          3
2021 Feb 24      76           5          2
2021 Feb 25      76           5          2
2021 Feb 26      74           5          2
2021 Feb 27      73           5          2