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#191
Issued on Monday July 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are
deteriorating.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and
very poor at day, 40-30 (41-25)
meters- fair at night and poor at
day, 20-17 (22-16) meters-
fair at night and fair at
day, 15 (13) meters- poor
at night and fair at
day, 12-10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost
daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10
(11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths
via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but
not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans
equatorial propagation (TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30
(41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very
poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor
at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the public.
And
though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP,
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the state of Florida USA
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. And I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal
levels received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels
received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF
signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain
array antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively
simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily
understandable and applicable by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally
HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the
fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer
and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly
and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different
angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Sunday July 9,
2017-
Solar activity was moderate.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a minor geomagnetic storming level.
The three daily solar flux index
(SFI) numbers were 89.6 90.9 91.9. These are the highest daily numbers in quite
a few months.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 31.
In
2017 officially there were 45 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 1 newly risen and/or emerged and/or existing official sun spot group
(SSG).
Earth facing SSG #12665 located near S06E38 with a complex
beta-gamma magnetic signature capable of releasing a small in size class C class
solar flare and a moderate in size M class solar flare.
There was 1
unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG) located
near
N13W13.
There were 6 small in size C class solar flares and 1
moderate in size M class solar
flare
M1.3,
C5.3,
C4.0,
C3.4,
C1.6,
C1.5,
C1.2.
No
coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm
occurred.
1 minor solar flare (M1.3) related x-ray day side solar fade
out (SFO)
occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at minor geomagnetic storming conditions to
quiet geomagnetic conditions of
5 3 2 5 2 3 4 3.
The Kp
geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor
geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9-
extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap)
ranged between
48 and 7,
which was at minor geomagnetic storming
conditions to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices
are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor
geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere
just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period
averaged energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10
MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at
M1.38.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at
+2.38 nT north.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-31 and +15 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
543 and 366 km/s.
There was an
earth facing trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole (CH) #812.
There
was an earth facing recurrent small northern hemisphere earth facing coronal
hole (CH) #813
(#808).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #191
