:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jul 24 0308 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 17 - 23 July 2017
Solar activity was at low levels on 17-19 Jul
and very low levels on
20-23 Jul. Region 2665 (S06, L=111, class/area Ekc/710
on 09 Jul)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2 flare observed
at
19/0007 UTC from around the west limb. Region 2666 (N13,
L=103,
class/area Cro/030 on 13 Jul) was mostly quiet as it decayed
to
plage before rotating around the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the summery period. A
maximum flux of 13,630
pfu was observed at 19/1755 UTC.
Geomagnetic
field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels
throughout the reporting period. On 17 Jul,
the continuing influence of a CME
caused quiet to active conditions
with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate)
storm levels reported
during the 1500-1800 UTC synoptic period. Waning CME
effects led to
quiet to unsettled conditions on 18 Jul. Conditions were quiet
on 19
Jul through early on 20 Jul. Late on 20 Jul conditions
reached
unsettled as a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC)
became
geoeffective. An isolated period of active was observed during
the
0000-0300 UTC synoptic period on 21 July as total magnetic
field
strength (Bt) increased to near 10 nT. Following the SSBC was
a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR), causing solar wind speeds
to
increase from around 450 km/s to a peak of 800 km/s observed at
21/1804
UTC. With the exception of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions observed
during the 22/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period,
quiet to active conditions were
observed through the remainder of
the period under the influence of positive
polarity CH HSS.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 24 JULY - 19
AUGUST 2017
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class flare
activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the
return
of old Region 2665 (S06, L=115) as it rotates through the
visible
disk. Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the
outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to range from normal to high levels. The influence
of
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs are expected to cause high
levels
from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug. Moderate levels are
expected on 30-31
Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is
likely to be at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to
G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels
are
likely on 05 Aug; quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul
and 17-18 Aug;
quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and
19 Aug. All
enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the
influence of multiple,
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs. The
remainder of the outlook period is
expected to be quiet under a
nominal solar wind regime.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 24 0308
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-07-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jul 24 70
8 4
2017 Jul 25 70 5 2
2017 Jul 26
70 5 2
2017 Jul 27 70 5 2
2017
Jul 28 70 5 2
2017 Jul 29 70
5 2
2017 Jul 30 80 5 2
2017 Jul 31
82 5 2
2017 Aug 01 82 5 2
2017
Aug 02 82 5 2
2017 Aug 03 82
5 2
2017 Aug 04 82 5 2
2017 Aug 05
82 25 5
2017 Aug 06 82 10 3
2017
Aug 07 82 8 3
2017 Aug 08 82
5 2
2017 Aug 09 82 5 2
2017 Aug 10
82 5 2
2017 Aug 11 82 5 2
2017
Aug 12 80 5 2
2017 Aug 13 75
5 2
2017 Aug 14 70 5 2
2017 Aug 15
70 5 2
2017 Aug 16 70 5 2
2017
Aug 17 70 15 4
2017 Aug 18 70
15 4
2017 Aug 19 70 12 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
