:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Apr 10 0321 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity
03 - 09 April 2017
Solar activity ranged from very low to
high during the period due to
multiple M-class flares from Region 2644 (N13,
L=57, class/area
Fkc/520 on 03 April). The first was an M1/Sf flare observed
at
03/0105 UTC. The second M-flare was an M5/2n at 03/1429 UTC with
an
associated Type II (estimated shock speed 746 km/s) and Type IV
radio
sweeps. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed with both
flares,
however, neither was deemed to be Earth-directed. No
Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 05-08 April, high
levels on 04, 09
April, and very high levels on 03 April. The largest flux of
the
period was 53,552 pfu at 03/1330 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity
ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
conditions. The period began under the
influence of a southern
polar, negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS).
Total field ranged between 2 and 6 nT until approximately
04/0000
UTC when it began to increase to a period maximum of 16 nT
at
04/1019 UTC. The Bz component reached a period minimum value of -13
nT
at 04/0932 UTC. Total field values were at near nominal levels
between
05/2200 and 07/2000 when Bt ranged from 2 to 7 nT. An
additional enhancement
in the interplanetary magnetic field occured
shortly after 07/2000 UTC when
Bt increased to 10 nT in conjunction
with a solar sector boundary crossing
(SSBC) from a negative to a
positve solar sector orientation. Solar wind
speed began the period
near 445 km/s and peaked to a maximum speed of 680
km/s at 08/1544
UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor)
storm
conditions on 04, 09 April, and quiet to active levels on 03,
05-08
April.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 April -
06 May 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight
chance for
C-class flare activity on 10-17 April and 05-06 May. Solar
activity
is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with
a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 18-30
April
and 01-04 May due to potential in Regions 2644 and 2645 (S10,
L=18,
class/area Ekc/700 on 03 April).
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels likely
from 10-12, 18-28 April and 01, 06 May with very high levels
likely
on 29-30 April due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 10-13, 17-19,
23-29 April, and 01-06 May with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely on 17, 23-27
April and G2 (Moderate) storm
levels likely on 23 April due to recurrent CH
HSS effects. Quiet
conditions are expected for the remainder of the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2017 Apr 10 0321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-04-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Apr 10 72
12 4
2017 Apr 11 72 8 3
2017 Apr 12
72 8 3
2017 Apr 13 72 8 3
2017
Apr 14 72 5 2
2017 Apr 15 72
5 2
2017 Apr 16 75 5 2
2017 Apr 17
85 20 5
2017 Apr 18 88 18 4
2017
Apr 19 88 10 3
2017 Apr 20 95
5 2
2017 Apr 21 95 5 2
2017 Apr 22
92 5 2
2017 Apr 23 92 55 6
2017
Apr 24 90 28 5
2017 Apr 25 90
20 5
2017 Apr 26 90 22 5
2017 Apr 27
90 28 5
2017 Apr 28 90 15 4
2017
Apr 29 90 8 3
2017 Apr 30 80
5 2
2017 May 01 78 20 4
2017 May 02
78 10 3
2017 May 03 72 8 3
2017
May 04 72 10 3
2017 May 05 75
15 4
2017 May 06 75 15 4
(SWPC via DXLD)
