:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 0607 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 28 Nov - 04 Dec 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to
moderate levels over the
period. Very low levels were observed on 01-03
December, low levels
were observed on 28 and 30 November and again on 04
December while
moderate levels were observed on 29 November. Region 2615
(S07,
L=139, class/area Dai/170 on 04 December) was responsible for
the
majority of the solar activity over the period since its
inception
late on 28 November. This region was responsible for 11
C-class
flares and two M-class flares; an M1/Sn at 29/1723 UTC and an
M1/Sf
at 29/2338 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were
observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period with a maximum
flux of 41,607 pfu
observed at 28/1640 UTC.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels
during the period. The period
began as solar wind parameters were
slowly recovering from a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds slowly
decreased from
approximately 570 km/s early in the period to near 280 km/s by
the
end. Total field values ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT. The
geomagnetic
field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 28 November. Quiet
levels
were observed from 29 November through 04 December.
FORECAST
OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 05 - 31 DECEMBER 2016
Solar activity is
expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares and a
slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares
on 05-10 December and again from
24-31 December due to potential
solar activity from Region 2615. The rest of
the forecast period is
expected to be at very low levels.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be normal to moderate
levels with high levels likely on
05-06, 10-18, and 22-31 December due to
recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
at unsettled to active
levels on 05, 07-11, and 19-25 December with G1
(Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels likely on 08-09 and 21-22 December due to
recurrent CH
HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook
Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 0607 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-12-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Dec 05 80
8 3
2016 Dec 06 80 5 2
2016 Dec 07
78 12 4
2016 Dec 08 78 15 5
2016
Dec 09 78 20 5
2016 Dec 10 72
18 4
2016 Dec 11 72 12 3
2016 Dec 12
72 5 2
2016 Dec 13 78 5 2
2016
Dec 14 78 5 2
2016 Dec 15 78
5 2
2016 Dec 16 78 5 2
2016 Dec 17
78 5 2
2016 Dec 18 78 8 3
2016
Dec 19 82 12 4
2016 Dec 20 82
16 4
2016 Dec 21 86 22 5
2016 Dec 22
86 30 5
2016 Dec 23 86 12 4
2016
Dec 24 86 10 3
2016 Dec 25 86
8 3
2016 Dec 26 86 5 2
2016 Dec 27
86 5 2
2016 Dec 28 84 5 2
2016
Dec 29 84 5 2
2016 Dec 30 84
5 2
2016 Dec 31 84 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
