:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0436 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 31 Aug - 6 Sept 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low
levels over the period. An
isolated C2 flare was observed at 31/0522 UTC from
Region 2403 (S15,
L=193, class/area Fki/1190 on 25 Aug) and a C1 flare
occurred at
03/1137 UTC from Region 2407 (N16, L=145, class/area Cso/050 on
01
Sep). No further notable flaring occurred during the period. On
04
September, an approximate 15 degree filament eruption, centered
near
S17E10, was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 304 imagery
between
04/1709-1854 UTC. A partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 04/1948 UTC with
most
of the ejecta directed off the SE limb. WSA/ENLIL analysis of the
CME
determined that an Earth-directed component was not likely.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 31 August
through 02 September and again from 05-06
September reaching a maximum flux
value over the period of 3,188 pfu
at 05/1840 UTC. Moderate levels occurred
on 03-04 September.
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet
levels under a
nominal solar wind regime. At 02/1522 UTC, a solar sector
boundary
crossing was observed in ACE solar wind data accompanied by a
slow
increase in solar wind speed. By late on 03 September, total
field
increased to around 12-14 nT with the Bz component
deflecting
southward to -10 nT. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed
on
02-03 September. By 04 September, solar wind increased to
around
450-550 km/s range as a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR)
followed by a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH
HSS) became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained in the
400-500
km/s range through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic
field
responded with active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels
through
midday on 04 September followed by quiet to active levels on
05-06
September.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 7
SEPTEMBER-3 OCTOBER 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to
low levels with
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely from 11-24
September
with the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=192).
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels with high levels likely
from 13-18 September, 20-21 September, 26-28
September and again
from 02-03 October due to CH HSS effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels
from
07-08, 11-16, 18-20, 24-25, and 30 September-03 October. Active
periods are
expected on 07, 12, 19, 24 September-03 October with
minor storm periods
(G1-Minor) possible on 19 September and 01
October, all due to recurrent CH
HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0437 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-09-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 07 85
12 4
2015 Sep 08 85 8 3
2015 Sep 09
85 5 2
2015 Sep 10 85 5 2
2015
Sep 11 95 8 3
2015 Sep 12 95
12 4
2015 Sep 13 95 8 3
2015 Sep 14
95 10 3
2015 Sep 15 100 10 3
2015
Sep 16 105 10 3
2015 Sep 17 110
5 2
2015 Sep 18 115 8 3
2015 Sep 19
115 20 5
2015 Sep 20 115 10 3
2015
Sep 21 115 5 2
2015 Sep 22 115
5 2
2015 Sep 23 110 5 2
2015 Sep 24
105 15 4
2015 Sep 25 100 10 3
2015
Sep 26 95 5 2
2015 Sep 27 90
5 2
2015 Sep 28 90 5 2
2015 Sep 29
90 5 2
2015 Sep 30 90 8 3
2015
Oct 01 90 18 5
2015 Oct 02 85
12 4
2015 Oct 03 85 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
