:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1109 (N21W106)
and 1111 (N24W18) produced isolated low-level B-class flares. The
visible disk was spotless. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE
spacecraft indicated a solar sector boundary crossing early in the
reporting period. Solar wind speeds have shown an increase to
around 340 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations of +6/-6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (06 October)
with mostly quiet conditions expected for days two and three (07-08
October).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 075
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 075/075/078
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
