Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W61) remains quiet and
stable. Newly numbered Region 1077 (N20W47) is an Axx Alpha spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with only a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar winds
have decreased to near 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled
conditions on day 1 (6 June) due to elevated solar wind speeds and
brief periods of Bz south. Quiet to unsettled with intermittent
periods of active conditions are expected on days 2 and 3 (7-8
June). The increase in activity is due in part to weak coronal hole
effects expected on 7 June as well as the possible arrival of a slow
moving CME on 8 June. The CME is from a filament that disappeared on
3 June. A weak halo can be observed on LASCO C3 coronagraph images
from early 4 June as well as STEREO A and B coronagraphs from the
same period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 072
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/005-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
