:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 May 09 0232 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 May 2022
Solar activity was ranged from low to high levels. High levels were
observed on 03-04 May in response to an X1/Sf flare (R3-Strong) at
03/1308 UTC, an M5 flare (R2-Moderate) 04/0019 UTC, and an M5/1b
flare at 04/0900 UTC. The X-flare and first M-Flare were from Region
3006 (S29, L=245, class/area=Cao/080 on 07 May) as it was behind the
SE limb. The last M5 flare was from Region 3004 (S16, L=324,
class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May). Associated with the M5 flare from
Region 3006 was a Type IV radio sweep. Both regions produced
moderate activity from smaller M1-M2 flares (R1-Minor) over 05 May.
Only C-class activity was observed for 02 May and 06-08 May. The two
regions were responsible for the vast majority of flare activity
during the week. Only Region 3007 (S23, L=190, class/area=Cao/060 on
08 May) was able to produce additional flare activity but the events
remained in the C-class range.
While many CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery only two, one
from 03 May and one from 07 May, were thought to have an
Earth-directed component. Each CME was thought to only produce a
weak glancing blow at Earth's magnetosphere on 08 May and 10 May
respectively.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels every day over the reporting period due to activity from
a negative polarity CH HSS. The maximum observed flux was 2,320 pfu
at 03/1340 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to unsettled. A
waning negative polarity CH HSS caused an isolated period of
unsettled conditions at the beginning of 02 May. The remainder of
the summary period was quiet.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 May - 04 June 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels during the
outlook period. However, there is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2
Minor-Moderate) activity throughout the period due to multiple
regions currently on the visible disk and several that are expected
to rotate on back onto the visible disk that produced M-class
activity before rotating beyond the W limb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are
expected from 26 May to 04 Jun due to influence from a recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is
expected to reach moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 24 May; active
conditions are likely on 20 May and 25-27 May due to recurrent CH
HSS influence. Unsettled conditions over 10-11 May are likely due to
influence from a glancing blow CME. Additional unsettled conditions
are likely 21 May and 28 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The
remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 09 0232 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-05-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 May 09 118 5 2
2022 May 10 116 8 3
2022 May 11 118 8 3
2022 May 12 120 5 2
2022 May 13 120 5 2
2022 May 14 122 5 2
2022 May 15 122 5 2
2022 May 16 122 5 2
2022 May 17 122 5 2
2022 May 18 122 5 2
2022 May 19 118 5 2
2022 May 20 118 12 4
2022 May 21 118 8 3
2022 May 22 120 5 2
2022 May 23 124 5 2
2022 May 24 121 18 5
2022 May 25 118 15 4
2022 May 26 118 15 4
2022 May 27 118 15 4
2022 May 28 116 8 3
2022 May 29 116 5 2
2022 May 30 116 5 2
2022 May 31 116 5 2
2022 Jun 01 118 5 2
2022 Jun 02 118 5 2
2022 Jun 03 118 5 2
2022 Jun 04 118 5 2
