After six days with no visible sunspots,
a new one appeared on Wednesday, August 1, with a daily sunspot number of 11. As
there was also only one day with a sunspot (also 11) in the previous week,
average daily sunspot number for this week was unchanged at 1.6. The new sunspot
is small and was given the number AR2717 on Thursday, when the sunspot number
again was 11.
Average daily solar flux was down from
68.4 to 68. Average daily planetary A index decreased from 8.1 to 5, while
average daily mid-latitude A index went from 8 to 5.1.
According to an August 2 forecast
prepared by the US Air Force, predicted solar flux is expected to be 70 on
August 3, 72 on August 4-9, 71 on August 10, 70 on August 11-17, 68 on August
18-20, 66 on August 21-23, 68 on August 24 through September 6, 70 on September
7-13, and 68 on September 14-16.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on
August 3, 10 on August 4-5, 6 on August /6, 8 on August 7-8, 5 on August 9-11, 8
on August 12-13, 5 on August 14-15, then 8 and 12 on August 16-17, 5 on August
18-19, 20 and 12 on August 20-21, 5 on August 22 through September 1, then 10
and 8 on September 2-3, 5 on September 4-7, 8 on September 8-9, 5 on September
10-11, 8 and 12 on September 12-13, 5 on September 14-15 and 20 on September
16.
Reader Max White, M0VNG, of Worcester,
England sent this about experiments with ionospheric sounding over 50 years ago,
both below and above the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/2LNGrvJ
Jeff, N8II, wrote: “There has been
sporadic E to somewhere every day on 10 meters in the past week, but today,
August 2nd, was absolutely amazing. It all started with working MW0EDX in Wales
on 15-meter CW via sporadic E with a good signal at 1815Z. Then, I called CQ on
15 CW and DL4KCA answered. He was 589 and was using a 3 element SteppIR Yagi
antenna; we tried 12 meters and he was 549 (my antenna is a 2-element vs
5-element Yagi on 15 and 10 meters), and 549 on 10-meter CW.
“I worked Fred, F5NBX, a 10-meter CW
regular, just after Joe and tried more CQs on 10 and 15 meters to no avail.
Then, the big surprise happened at 1905Z when I heard Vlad, R2KW, with a 549
signal on 10 CW from Kaliningrad; with just one try I was in his log. Then, the
following stations answered my CW CQs: UA3EDQ, RZ3AK, and RQ3A in Moscow, RU2K
in Kaliningrad, and UX7IB and UX2VA in Ukraine -- all with S2 to 3
signals.
“In the 1900Z hour, I had a few western
European stations call on CW from Germany, France, the Netherlands (a new DXCC
band slot since 1/17) and Belgium (a new slot). I then found OH0Z on Aland
Island who was 549 (another new slot)! This was followed by 9A2018CRO in
Croatia, and more from Italy, Germany, France, and England.
“The 2000Z hour was relatively quiet
with Hristo, LZ2HR, found at 2010Z and Q5 copy for the next 2 hours! Also, on
10-meter CW, I worked one each in Spain, Italy, and England.
“I was about to shut down for dinner at
2100Z when a few new stations appeared. On SSB, Ian, MM0TFU, called in very weak
followed by CW contacts with OH0Z now 559, as well as Germany, Spain, and
Robert, S50R, in Slovenia. Then, at 2122-2151Z, conditions markedly improved and
on SSB I ran 30 European stations, all in Germany, England, Spain, France,
Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal. The last few minutes were spent
chasing DX cluster spots and spotting some stations of my own on CW, working
ZB2FK in Gibraltar (a new slot), KL7SB/VP9 in Bermuda (a new slot), LZ3ZZ, TA1D
in Istanbul, Turkey (new slot), and MU0FAL in Guernsey at 2205Z. After a dinner
break at 2246Z, the band seemed to have closed to Europe, but VY2CAK on Prince
Edward Island was S9+.
In my 47-plus-years of operating, I had
never worked Russia, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Aland Island, or Turkey on 10 meters
via sporadic E during the summer months; it was an incredible opening!” (When
Jeff says “new slot” it refers to the first time working a DXCC country on a
particular band, as he explained above. – K7RA)
Jon Jones, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas
sent this on August 2: "Usually, the sporadic E season winds down in August. But
so far it has been going strong. There was a big E opening on 6 meters August 1
from Japan to the southeast states. N0LL and I heard CT1HZE into Kansas August
1. On August 2, Europe was in for hours as far west as the Mississippi River.
Why such good conditions? One wonders if there is a connection to the fact that
this has also been a great season for NLC (noctilucent clouds). They form at 85
km altitude. The E-layer is 90 - 160 km high. Perhaps the same upper atmosphere
conditions keeping NLC going strong may be influencing sporadic E. See
Spaceweather.com."
Note that Spaceweather.com has a gallery
of images devoted to NLC: http://spaceweathergallery.com/nlc_gallery.html
Frantisek Janda, OK1HH sent the
following from Ondrejov in the Czech Republic. See his bio on QRZ.com for more
about him.
"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period August 3-29, 2018.
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on August 5, 10-11, 15,
23-24
Quiet to unsettled on August 14, 16,
22
Quiet to active on August 3-4, 6-9, 12,
25-29
Unsettled to active on August 12, 17-19,
21
Active to disturbed on August (13,)
20
Solar wind will intensify on August
(16-19,) 20-22, 28-30
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of
activity enhancement.
- Reliability of predictions remains
low."
Dr. Tamitha Skov sent this, followed by
her video for this week: “Last week I mentioned traveling was always an
adventure and this trip has been no exception. After being unable to connect to
the television in my hotel room (I tried with two separate computers), I settled
for shooting my forecast using my mobile phone camera in a way it was never
intended. The result has been an unconventional video to say the least! I almost
didn't post it, as it's not up to my usual standards, but I figured you would
forgive the imperfections in favor of the content.
“Additionally, I apologize for getting
this newsletter out to you a little late this week. Spotty internet connection
while on the road has prevented me from sending it out until today. However,
being mobile in Europe this week has given me the chance to reflect on how
deeply entrenched space exploration is in our global culture. In fact, while in
Amsterdam I came across an art installation showing an astronaut impossibly
balancing between a chair and a flower pot (see https://bit.ly/2LRDIl2). The Joseph
Klibansky installation, called "Self-Portrait of a Dreamer," succinctly captures
our culture's dreamy fascination with space and its intersection with objects in
our more ordinary lives.
“As I stared up at this massive
structure, the symbolism began to sink in. I realized we are a lot like that
dreamy astronaut, striving to blend our understanding of space with its impacts
on our everyday world. I also realized that just like the astronaut, we too will
one day soon strike a perfect balance.
“This week's forecast brings us an
Earth-directed stealthy solar storm followed by a small pocket of fast wind that
will likely have little effect but could bring subtle aurora to high latitudes.
Even though GPS users might experience glitchy reception near aurora, users at
low latitudes should enjoy better than normal reception due to the light impact
of the storm. The Sun also has two bright regions rotating into Earth-view this
week that should help keep amateur radio propagation near marginal levels, so
there is some good news for everyone!
“Cheers, Tamitha"
See her latest video here: https://youtu.be/MTl5ETzb4_4
For more information concerning radio
propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins
is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.
More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four
USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending
email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for July 26 through
August 1, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux
was 66.2, 66.6, 67.9, 68, 68.3, 68.9, and 70.2, with a mean of 68. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 6, with a mean of 5. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 6, 5, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.1.
