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discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur
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thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
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solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave
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well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We
are now moving into the summer/winter equinox type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions, with generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere and generally good in the southern
hemisphere.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
#131 Issued on Thursday May 11, 2017 at 1530 UTC
Global
Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF
BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- poor at night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at
night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at
day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,
12(11) meters-
very poor at night and poor to fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and fair to good at day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night
and fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
This HF
Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the W4HMCap HF radio
wave
propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal
levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based
on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW
mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at
40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based
on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave
broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw)
and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the
average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most
diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Wednesday May 10,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
69.9 68.6 69.4.
These daily SFI numbers below 70 occurred unusually early
on the downside of
solar cycle 24.
The official daily sunspot number
(SSN) was 0.
Unfortunately my forecast for more days with a daily sunspot
number of 0 had
verified.
It was day 2 in a row with no earth facing
sunspot numbers.
In 2017 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur
for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, observations daily SSN's of 0
occurring now is unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days
with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't
occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring
now is unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see
a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton
type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be
very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 1 newly emerged unofficial as of yet unnumbered earth facing
sunspot
group located near
S11W10.
No earth facing C class or larger solar
flares occurred.
No day side high latitude solar fade outs (SF)
occurred.
It’s also called polar cap absorption caused by energetic
protons striking
earth’s geomagnetic field and increasing RF signal
absorption in the D
layer.
No earth directed coronal mass ejections
(CME) occurred.
No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions
occurred.
The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index
(Kp) was at
quiet geomagnetic conditions of
2 1 0 0 2 1 1
2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4-
active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8-
severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and
we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index
(Ap) ranged between
9 and 0,
which was at unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level
below 10 MeV.
The 24
hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at A4.53.
The 24 hour
period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic
magnetic
field was at
+5.41 nT north.
The 24 hour period maximum and
minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst)
ranged between
+20 and +6
nT.
These numbers were one of the largest positive ones in a long time
and
indicate that earth’s geomagnetic field is very quiet.
A -10 or
better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a
geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive
number is best.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed
ranged between
394 and 344 km/s.
A recently formed and risen small
trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #803
was visible on the earth facing side
of the sun. It was growing larger with
each passing
day.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein
is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater
than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for
several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar,
space and geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF
propagation forecast
that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and
HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced
permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The
forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
