Last week’s prediction about geomagnetically-disturbed conditions turned out to
be correct, with the K-index soaring to five during the week. This resulted in
visible aurora at high latitudes, as local midnight is often the time when
aurorae and disturbed conditions hit their peak. There were three small sunspot
groups visible on the solar surface on Thursday, but these only pushed the solar
flux index to 76.
Next week, NOAA predicts similar solar parameters, with
the solar flux index in the seventies. Sunday the fifth may be geomagnetically
unsettled, but we should then get a better period of quiet conditions. This may
allow the ionosphere to recover, with the possibility of better DX openings from
the 6th. Expect daytime maximum usable frequencies over 3,000 kilometres to peak
at around 15 metres at times, with 17 and 20 being more reliable.
Daytime
critical frequencies may peak around 7MHz, although the 5MHz band will be more
reliable for intra-UK contacts. Night-time critical frequencies may exceed
3.5MHz at times, offering the potential for DX on 80 and even 40 metres. A
settled polar ionosphere can sometimes be a good indicator for the lower
bands.
Bob, MD0CCE reported good Top Band openings to the USA on many
occasions last month. The evening of 24 January also provided one of the best
160m openings to JA he had heard in two years. The high-latitude K-index had
been zero or one for each of that day’s three-hourly periods, which suggested a
settled ionosphere for polar paths.
VHF and up:
It is looking like
another week of unsettled weather with low pressure systems dominating the
charts, bringing some wet and windy weather at times. There is unlikely to be
much enhanced tropo on offer, but there could be rain scatter opportunities on
the GHz bands. Last week saw rain scatter on 3.4 and 10GHz with signals from
beacons, but sadly no UK activity to go with it.
Even light rain can
provide enhancement if you look carefully for it, so make a noise on the GHz
bands.
