Last week, the hoped-for settled geomagnetic conditions materialised, but could
have been better. After Monday, the K-index settled down to one or two for the
rest of the week.
HF conditions have been variable, rather than
outstanding. There have been some 15 metre openings at times, but 20 and 17
metres have been more consistent. The lower bands, such as 80 and 40 metres,
have also been proving how good they can be in the winter, offering DX at
times.
The daytime critical frequency has
been reaching around 6MHz, meaning 40m is open to slightly longer skip of 500 to
1,000 kilometres. Sixty metres has been better for daytime inter-G contacts. The
estimated nighttime MUF over a 3,000km path has been staying above 7MHz through
the night.
Next week, the solar
flux index is predicted to remain in the 70s, moving higher towards 80 around
the eighteenth.
Geomagnetically-settled conditions should continue until
around the fourteenth, when the K-index is predicted to rise to four, due to
recurrent coronal hole activity. But this should be relatively short
lived.
We will be moving towards springtime HF conditions in a few weeks,
so make the most of the better low-band conditions while you can.
VHF and
up:
With high pressure over the North Sea and the nearby continent, we
might expect some enhanced tropo conditions on paths across to Denmark and
northern Germany later this weekend, but nothing major.
Some weather
models bring the high a bit closer at the end of next week. This may limit the
tropo by lowering the temperature inversion and bringing very dry air from the
continent, degrading the inversions’ ability to generate tropo. So, a slightly
better week than last, but much of the time there will be no major tropo
event.
Even with poor tropo conditions, it’s worth investigating the VHF,
UHF and GHz bands. There are always DX opportunities at VHF and above using
aircraft scatter—up to 800km if you have the right equipment to take advantage
of short duration paths. Digimodes or fast CW are required.
We are in the
winter minimum of meteor activity, but there are still opportunities for random
meteor scatter contacts around dawn, when the Earth is rotating into the flux of
meteoric particles.
Moon declination is falling, going
negative on Tuesday, and losses are increasing. With apogee only a week away,
the best conditions for EME contacts will be early this week.
