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#148
Issued on Sunday May 28, 2017 at 1400 UTC
We are now into the
summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions.
This
means generally poor HF radio wave propagation conditions in the northern
hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at day.
Globally HF
radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall
and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and
winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF
BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60
(75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,
40-30
(41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-16)
meters- fair at night and poor at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and
very poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at
day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9
Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the W4HM_Cap
HF radio wave propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A
mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based
on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode
RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on
100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast
band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical
VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Saturday May 27,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a moderate to major geomagnetic storming level.
A coronal mass
ejection (CME) from a Tuesday May 23, 2017 (geoeffective) directly earth facing
collapsing magnetic filament eruption arrived at earth’s geomagnetic field
triggering significant geomagnetic storming and creating mid latitude
aurora.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 81.6 81.9
79.9.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 22. In the next couple
of days we may be headed for yet another period of time with no daily sunspot
numbers (SSN).
In 2017 officially there were 37 days with a daily sunspot
number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now
unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is
unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see
a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton
type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot
magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar
cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 1 newly risen or emerged official sunspot group.
Sunspot group #12659
was located near N13W57 with a magnetically simple beta magnetic
signature.
There were no unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing
sunspot groups.
No earth facing C class or larger solar flares
occurred.
No day side high latitude solar fade outs (SFO) occurred.
The solar fade out (SFO) events are related to polar cap absorption
(PCA) events mostly caused by energetic protons striking earth’s geomagnetic
field and increasing RF signal absorption in the D layer at high
latitudes.
No earth facing coronal mass ejections (CME)
occurred.
No earth facing collapsing magnetic filament eruptions
occurred.
The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index
(Kp) was at moderate geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet geomagnetic
conditions of
1 0 0 0 1 3 3 6.
The Kp geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
67
and 0,
which was at major geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
A coronal
mass ejection (CME) from a Tuesday May 23, 2017 (geoeffective) directly earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption arrived at earth’s geomagnetic
field triggering significant geomagnetic storming and creating mid latitude
aurora.
The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at
B9.28.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-3.65 nT South.
On Sunday May
28, 2017 the Bz as been as far south as -20 nT.
The 24 hour period
maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-122 and +41 nT.
The -122 nT value was the strongest
negative value in many weeks.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
421 and 27 km/s.
There were no
new earth facing (CH) coronal holes.
Previous earth facing northern
hemisphere C.H. #805 shrank in size and set around the west limb of the sun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
