Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Issued on Sunday January 22, 2017 at
1500 UTC
Sunday, January 22, 2017 3:29 PM
For my hamateur radio and
SWL friends around the globe:
Feel free to redistribute this "not for
profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and
give me credit for it.
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the usefulness of it.
Issued on Sunday January 22, 2017 at 1500
UTC
Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
HAMATEUR & SW
BROADCAST HF BANDS:
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and
very poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17
(22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and fair at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very
poor at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over
S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio
wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the
average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and
most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Saturday January 21,
2017-
Solar activity was high.
Earth's magnetic field was
unsettled.
The solar flux index (SFI) was 83.9 83.2 83.9.
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 67. This was the highest daily
SSN
since November 30, 2016.
In 2017 there were 10 days with a daily sunspot
number (SSN) of 0.
In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
Sunspot group #12625 was located near N01W47, with a simple
alpha magnetic
signature.
Sunspot group #12626 was located near
N08W35, with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.
Recently emerged
sunspot group #12627 was located near N07E16, with a simple
beta magnetic
signature.
Recently emerged sunspot group #12628 was located near N12E34,
with a more
complex beta-gamma magnetic signature. It is capable of releasing
medium
sized M class solar flares.
There were one as of yet unnumbered
sunspot group located near
N17E13.
As we move forward towards the
next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a
0 daily sunspot number will dramatically
increase. Eventually most every day
for many many months will see a 0.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to
be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that came forecast verified. I also
forecasted that solar cycle 25 would
be virtually non existent, similar to
the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
One
earth facing small C9.0 class solar flare occurred. It was associated
with
newly emerged sunspot group #12628.
No earth directed coronal mass
ejections (CME) occurred.
No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament
eruptions occurred.
The 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) which was
at unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 3.
The
maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 18 and 4,
which was
at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The background x-ray flux was
B2.43.
The horizontal component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was -0.1
nT south.
No energetic proton events greater than 10 MeV (10+0)
occurred.
The maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 497 and 447
km/s.
There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole
#786
(#780).
There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing
coronal hole
#787
(#781).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The
Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5-
minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9-
extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15
unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99-
major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on
Mars and we are all
dead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices
"interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio
wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper
credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or
higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine
stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.)
Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several
days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than
3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several
days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several
days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive
number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation
forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).
However the propagation forecast that I
produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free to
redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF
radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's
entirety and give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and geomagnetic
weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not
official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject
to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
(Giella, Jan 22, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
