Greetings to
my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my
“not for profit” W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only
accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the
planet.
You can sign
up for the daily email delivered global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast
at
You can view
the forecast online at
If you find
this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and
SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that
at
I enjoy
hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs
that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio
wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening
their knowledge in science.
Feel free
without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio
wave
propagation
forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit
for it.
Supporting
images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be
found in my Facebook account at
and in my
Twitter account at
I'm a
semiretired heliophysicist, troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical
oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and
forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In troposphere weather
forecasting I have 46 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic
weather forecasting 31 years. In physical oceanography 10 years.
This is
created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ©
1988-2019.
You can contact
me at thomasfgiella@gmail.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W4HM Solar
Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.
Solar minimum
will begin later in 2019-2020 and may last longer than any previous solar cycle
in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the
weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another “Dalton” type lesser grand
solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate.
This would
negate anthropogenic climate change (harmful man induced global warming) if it
were occurring, WHICH IT ISN’T.
For more
“TRUTH” on the communist-marxist-socialist lie of anthropogenic climate change
(harmful man induced global warming) check out https://wattsupwiththat.com and
http://www.climatedepot.com
On February 1,
2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the
past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25
would be almost non nonexistent SSN <50.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#154 issued
Sunday Jun 02, 2019 at 1300 UTC
GLOBAL (HF-MF
3000-30000 kHz- 300-3000 kHz) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED-
Radio wave
propagation condition “trend” on Jun 02, 2019- steady.
Radio wave
propagation condition “trend” on Jun 03, 2019- minor
deterioration.
Radio wave
propagation condition “trend” on Jun 04, 2019- steady.
We are now
moving into the northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation summer
season.
The 14000-
30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the
ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the
ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated.
Almost
daily during
the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz
and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and
east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E
(Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on
east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur
across the equator via trans equatorial propagation
(TEP).
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE HIGH FREQUENCY (HF) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST s
b-
Received RF
signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1
over S9 or greater
Good-
S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor-
S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 at night and S1-2 at
day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-6 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S0-1 at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-6 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S0-1 at day,
28000-29700
kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We
are now moving into the southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation winter
season.
The
approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light
illuminating
the ionosphere than in the northern
hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the
northern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the
ions more concentrated.
The
approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all
throughout the day due to a weaker D layer and therefore less RF signal
absorption.
A
weaker and shorter sporadic E (Es) season occurs during winter
time.
SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE HIGH FREQUENCY (HF) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST w b-
3150-3400,
3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-4 at
day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and
S5-8 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S5-7 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and
S5-8 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S5-7 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700
kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLOBAL MEDIUM
FREQUENCY (MF) (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED-
Received RF
signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1
over S9 or greater
Good-
S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor-
S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT
PATH-
|
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km
|
S6-7
|
|
*North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800
km
|
S5-6
|
|
+South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800
km
|
S8-9
|
FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
|
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800
km
|
S6-7
|
|
*South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800
km
|
S5-6
|
|
+North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800
km
|
S8-9
|
FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED
PATH-
Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-
|
High Latitude
|
S6-7
|
|
Mid Latitude
|
S8-9
|
|
Low latitude
|
S5-6
|
FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED
PATH-
Southern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-
|
High Latitude
|
S6-7
|
|
Mid Latitude
|
S8-9
|
|
Low latitude
|
S5-6
|
Received RF
signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1
over S9 or greater
Good-
S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor-
S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
This HF-MF
Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio
wave propagation prediction software. X and O ray tracing is
included.
I wrote it
beginning in the late 1980’s and continue to refine it in 2019.
But I’m sorry
to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public.
It does
outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab.
I do check the
actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually
where and when necessary.
I also check
global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on
every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when
necessary.
And last but
not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur
radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave
dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur
radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur
radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave
dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur
radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave
dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF
shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts
(100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
The MF
broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an
omnidirectional vertical antenna.
Please keep in
mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average
radio enthusiast.
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use
error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment
Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions,
to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation
forecast. This
data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$
(including mine).
However this
daily HF-MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF-MF
radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2019 by
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free
without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio
wave
propagation
forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit
for it.
Also HF-MF
radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and
therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational
and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of
God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
