W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Images associated with this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found
at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

I have decided to begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at

@GiellaW4hm https://twitter.com

Of course it will consist of little snippets of what's going on as Twitter
severely limits tweets as far as content length.

Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast on Facebook as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness
of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#53 Issued on Saturday March 4, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Friday March 3, 2017-

Solar activity was low.

Earth's magnetic field was active.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 78.0 78.0 77.4.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 36.

Sunspot group #12638 was located near N16W83 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12641 was located near N15W03 with a simple beta magnetic
signature.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2017 there were 11 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.

In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many many many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.

The twenty four hour period three hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions

3 4 4 4 3 4 2 1.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 27 and 7,
which was at active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A4.7.

The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was
+2.0 nT north.

The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between -20 and -54.

The maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 760 and 573 km/s and
was emanating directly from (CH) coronal hole #792 (#788) which has now set
around the sun's western limb.

There was a new trans equatorial (geoeffective) directly earth facing (CH)
coronal hole #793 but it's shrinking in size and probably won't impact
earths magnetic field in a negative manner.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.
Something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Agenda DX 04/03/2017

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTE
Radio Estancia, Brasile 1270 Khz (1949)
Radio Guàrico, Venezuela 1060 Khz (1950)
CBZ, New Brunswich, Canada 970 Khz (1964)
CHED, Alberta, Canada 630 Khz (1954)

New SW transmitter for HCJB on 6050

ECUADOR On 02 March 2017 at 02:19 hrs wrote The Andean Voice:

A warm hello from Quito-Ecuador,
Today a new transmitter was put into operation on
Mt. Pichincha, the Now runs 24 hours a day.

It still lacks air in 4000m sea height, so that the thermoswitch
between him and-off and then turns off (about 5 minutes) again.
If the signal reaches Europe, I can still put some German
consignments from the cans.
Your Horst Rosiak, Quito, Ecuador.
(Via Wolfgang Gargitter-AUT, A-DX ng March 2)

New KW transmitter 6050 kHz.
Basically a very gratifying message.
{I'll} Watch the frequency in the near future, and am anxious,
Which penetrates Europe. Until about 5 clock UTC it is still
present here dark.

For how long is the 24-hrs test operation planned before
returning to the Regulatory dispatch at 2:30 pm UT is passed? -
Applies to the Test phase is the regular broadcast schedule in
Indian languages, or is increased In English, Spanish, possibly
even German, sent, test announcements? - RRs Can you send
by the end of 2016 via the online form?

Have noticed that the transmitter is currently silent. - At least
bother Also the station from China to 6050 khz around this
year and day time no more.

I wish you every success in the commissioning of the new station in
Airy height.

Greeting from Tyrol, (Wolfgang Gargitter-AUT, A-DX ng March 2)

(via Ron Howard, DXLD)

Propagation News – 5 March 2017

We were pleased to get the HF propagation prediction pretty much spot on last week. While Monday and Tuesday were reasonably settled, Wednesday saw the effects of solar material from a large coronal hole as it hit the Earth. The K-index leapt to five around lunchtime and there were reports of HF openings up to 10 metres. This was probably a pre-auroral enhancement, but it didn’t last too long.

By late Wednesday the K-index had continued to climb to six. And on Thursday morning this had taken its toll on the ionosphere; the maximum usable frequency was down to less than 14MHz, with unsettled conditions all day. Next week, NOAA predicts a solar flux index in the low 70s and a K-index of two, thanks to a respite from coronal hole activity.

Interpreting this, we can say that HF conditions should be better than they were in the latter half of last week. Expect maximum usable frequencies to reach perhaps 21MHz at times. After a few days with a low K-index we may even see some better DX. This time of year favours north-south paths, such as the UK to South Africa, South America and the Caribbean. Paths to Cape Town may even reach 28MHz around 1400UTC for well-equipped stations if geomagnetic conditions are quiet. That is, with a low K-index. In contrast, paths to the Caribbean may struggle to reach 21MHz.

As we are now into March, users of propagation prediction software like VOACAP and VOAProp should be using the new smoothed sunspot number, 28.

VHF and up:

This week starts as unsettled as the last, but without the extremes of Storm Doris! We had some rain scatter last Tuesday but, true to form, it was just about gone by the start of the SHF UKAC contest. This just highlights the need to operate on the GHz bands more than one day a month, unless you just want to work the same people and no DX.

This week we have regular small lows drifting across the country and producing more areas of rain or heavy showers. In fact, as we move towards the equinox, the chances of heavier showers developing increases and, although this may mean potential thunder and lightning, it does improve the prospects for rain scatter on the GHz bands.

This takes us up to midweek, after which there is a hint of higher pressure over Biscay and France, possibly bringing slightly better tropo prospects to southern areas. But some longer-range models bring a return of unsettled weather after a day or so.

We are still in the period until April with no meteor showers, so stick to the best time for random meteor scatter contacts, which is around dawn, when the earth is rotating into the flux of meteoric particles.

The Moon reaches its highest declination on Tuesday and losses are still low in the early part of the week, so it’s another good week for EME.

Glenn Hauser logs March 3, 2017

** CANADA. 15034-USB, March 3 at 1526, Trenton Military with ``no report received`` from Winnipeg, Edmonton; usual 61-minute-slow wrong timecheck for 1425Z, but succeeds in getting a report next from Cold Lake (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** ECUADOR. 6050, March 3 at 0620, very surprised to find Spanish here, and it`s a heavily produced gospel huxter, sounds like Ministerio En Contacto, California. What could it be but HCJB? For many years they signed off at 0500*, but recently cut back to 0230v*. Revived or a mistake? I didn`t think they were on the air at all at this hour, and MW 690 was recently turned off forever. Maybe FM 89.3 programming is available, running 24h. I keep listening for the tell-tale half-hour timesignal, and there it is right at 0630, and into song, so I`m confident it really is HCJB. Can`t find any plain old program schedule at http://radiohcjb.org  

No sign of ELWA Liberia which should be on 6050 after 0530 now in English, but I would never hear it in HCJB`s absence, anyway (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** INDONESIA. 9524.942, March 3 at 1534, carrier here must be VOI, along with a JBA one closer to 9525.00 (CRI English via Kashgar), but nothing toward 9526. 

As recently as Feb 21, VOI was on the other(?) transmitter close to 1 kHz higher: ``Good signal of Voice of Indonesia on Feb 21:

1300-1400 on  9525.9 JAK 250 kW / 010 deg to EaAs English

(Ivo Ivanov, QTH: Sofia, Bulgaria, dxldyg via DX LISTENING DIGEST)``

Atsunori Ishida, http://rri.jpn.org/ shows it went back to ``9525`` on March 1 (Glenn Hauser, OK,  DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** MALI. 5995.000, March 3 at 0615, carrier from R. Mali is spot-on, not 9 Hz high like the unID I had almost 4 hours earlier; and only one carrier now, so that remains a mystery (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** SAIPAN. 9790.031, March 3 at 1540, YL in Chinese, piano music bit, S9, significantly off frequency. Yes, it`s IBB, Agignan Point, Saipan, again, RFA scheduled this hour only; but no jammer audible closer to 9790.0 or anywhere around.

Note my previous log of Saipan 38 Hz high: ``11850.038, Feb 24 at 1426-1430+, bandscanning in 1 kHz steps with BFO, anything a bit off-frequency raises a red flag`` (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. With 6855 WRMI absent early UT March 3, I asked Jeff White:

``Jeff, 6855 is off this evening, so I wonder if there is a problem with that transmitter and whether it will be on tomorrow night for the SWL Fest special? Do you have a backup alternate frequency for that? 

I`m also wondering whether the Fri 2230 WOR on 11580 & 5950 will still be on 6855 as well, since programming content seems to be changing there and not fully published. While I`m at it, I`ll ask what`s the story on TruNews departing? 73, Glenn``

``Glenn: We've been doing maintenance and some upgrades to 6855, but it will be on for the SWL Fest broadcast tonight. We are also probably going to simulcast it on 9395 kHz. TruNews decided to leave shortwave at the end of February (going all Internet it seems), so 9395 is available for the SWL Fest broadcast. By the way, I think the former 2200-0100 UT programming on 6855 will return in a couple of weeks or so. We have had some special programs and have changed things temporarily. Jeff`` (Glenn Hauser, March 3, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 9810.056, March 3 at 1543, JBA carrier off-frequency. And another even weaker one close to 9810.00. Aoki shows at 1520-1620, VIRI Sirjan eastward in Urdu; and also at 1500-1600, BBC Oman northeastward in Pashto. Iran should be the one that`s off; but HFCC shows since Feb 12, BBC has switched to the UAE site, which is also capable of such skewage, fond of lax accuracy (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST) 

This report dispatched at 1736 UT March 3

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #52

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Images associated with this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found
at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

I have decided to begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at

@GiellaW4hm https://twitter.com

Of course it will consist of little snippets of what's going on as Twitter
severely limits tweets as far as content length.

Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast on Facebook as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness
of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#52 Issued on Friday March 3, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Thursday March 2, 2017-

Solar activity was high.

Earth's magnetic field was actived.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 80.0 79.1 79.1.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 52.

Sunspot group #12638 was located near N16W69 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12640 was located near N08W31 with a simple  alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12641 was located near N14E08 with a  twisted beta-gamma
magnetic signature capable of releasing small C class solar flares.

Sunspot group #12642 was located near N15W03 with a simple beta magnetic
signature.

A newly risen but as of yet unnumbered sunspot group was located near
N05E66.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2017 there were 11 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.

In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many many many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.

The twenty four hour period three hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions 5 4 4 5 5 3 4
2.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 39 and 9,
which was at minor geomagnetic storming to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A6.5.

The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was
+2.1 nT north.

The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between -22 and -53.

The maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 760 and 583 km/s and
was emanating directly from (CH) coronal hole #792 (#788).

There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing (CH) coronal hole #792
(#788).

There was a new trans equatorial (geoeffective) directly earth facing (CH)
coronal hole #793.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.
Something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Ascolti onde corte Treviso 3 marzo

9700  03/03 1200 Radio New Zealand Inter., Rangitaiki TS ID Nx E 24522
9800  03/03 1203 KSDA AWR Asia, Agat-Guam Px rel. M 24522
9930  03/03 1205 Que Me Radio, PLW-Medorn  Px VN 25522
11520 03/03 1208 WEWN Catholic R., Birmingham Al Px rel. E 25533
11580 03/03 1210 KTWR Trans World R. Guam-Agana/Merizo QRM WRMI  Px rel. YI  33542
12120 03/03 1213 FEBC Manila, Bocau Px rel. AK  35543
15770 03/03 1219 Brother Stair, via WRMI-Okeechobee FL  Mx rel. E 45543
17730 03/03 1225 Radio Habana Cuba, Bauta   Nx economia Es 35533
17780 03/03 1227 BBC WS Radio, AFS-Meyerton Nx Sport E 45544
21560 03/03 1301 Radio Vaticana, S. Maria Galeria  Nx It 25522

73 da N. Marabello
QTH  Treviso, Italia
RX:  TECSUN PL-365
Ant.: filo di 9 metri

MSF - Notice of Interruption

MSF 60 kHz Time and Frequency Signal

The MSF 60 kHz time and frequency signal broadcast from Anthorn Radio Station will be shut down on Thursday 9 March 2017 from 10:00 to 14:00 UTC

The interruption to the transmission is required to allow maintenance work to be carried out in safety.

If you require any additional information, please visit:

www.npl.co.uk/time

Or alternatively you can contact us at:

communications@npl.co.uk

Glenn Hauser logs March 2-3, 2017

** BRAZIL. 4894.9, March 3 at 0209, not even a carrier from R. Novo Tempo, gone again or just very sporadic? Propagation is OK, with the best and most reliable ZY on 60m next door, 4885.022, S9 R. Clube do Pará (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** BRAZIL. 6180, March 3 at 0018, RNA/RNB and its spurblobs are still missing tonight, while 11780 is nominal; JBA signal on 6180 would be CRI East Turkistan (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CANADA. 3330-CUSB, March 3 at 0045, CHU is still/again AWOL from here, but OK on 7850-CUSB; inaudible, maybe off too, from 14670-CUSB (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA. 6060, March 3 at 0019, RHC Spanish is VG at S9+45 except for the modulation which as usual is rough on this frequency.

5025, March 3 at 0049, R. Rebelde is off, while 5040 RHC is S9+45; see UNIDENTIFIED (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** GUAM. 17880, March 3 at 0004, JBA carrier here is the only signal on 16m besides Cuba very strong on 17730. HFCC shows it`s KSDA at 00-01, 315 degrees NW in Chinese (or jammer? Probably the ChiCom do not bother with this) (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NORTH AMERICA. YHWH gone? I haven`t run across Station YHWH lately, nor seen any other reports of it. My last log was Feb 20 at 21+ on 15530-. Last log on 7 MHz band was Feb 17 at 0243 on 7615. I did several scans of the 7 MHz band and also 5790-5792 tonight March 3 until 0230 and didn`t find him. Most usual timespan was roughly 02-04++ UT. Is anyone hearing him now, or has heard him anywhere since the above catches? Searched HF Underground and found no logs there since Dec 31, 2016 (Glenn Hauser, OK, 0311 UT Mar 3, dxldyg via DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. WORLD OF RADIO 1867 monitoring: confirmed Thursday March 2 at 2130 on 11580, good. Also confirmed UT Fri Mar 3 at 0030 on WBCQ 9330.05v-CUSB, S9+30! Hope this improvement continue as we have less and less night on the path. Next:

Fri 2230   WRMI 11580 to NE, 6855? to WNW, 5950 to S

Sat 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sat 0730   HLR 6190-CUSB to WSW

Sat 1530   HLR 7265-CUSB to WSW

Sat 2030v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sat 2330   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sun 0410v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sun 1130   HLR 9485-CUSB to SW

Mon 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Mon 0400v  WBCQ 5130v Area 51 to WSW

Mon 0430   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Tue 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Tue 0030   WRMI 7730 to WNW

Tue 1200   WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2130   WRMI 15770 to NE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2300   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Wed 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Wed 1030   WRMI 5850 to NW, 6855 to WNW

Wed 1415.5 WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Wed 2200   WBCQ 7490v to WSW

Thu 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. New Program From Tilford Productions Invades the Airwaves --

Tilford Productions, which brings you From the Isle of Music, is launching a second program, `Uncle Bill's Melting Pot`, a half-hour musical variety program on WBCQ 7490 kHz, perhaps best described as indescribable, or as host Bill Tilford states, "from the ridiculously sublime to the sublimely ridiculous with genres from A-Z". The inaugural broadcast is Friday, March 3, 0000-0030 World Date/UTC (Thursday, March 2, 7:00-7:30 pm EST in North America) (Bill Tilford, IL, Feb 28, WORLD OF RADIO 1867, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

So I make a point of listening UT Fri March 3 at 0000 on 7489.94-AM. Yes, an enjoyable show, wide variety of music, starting with banjo and a polka. No Spanish announcements. Good signal so far.

0030 UT Fri is when `Broad Spectrum Radio` from OKC had been running, but not for a few weeks now and no update on the BSR website except trying to fundraise to continue in 2017y. Instead again this week is `Furthermore 29-54` with Ramsey from the other Monticello, including extended anti-TV clips of Howard Beale from movie Network. Ramsey also plugs plenty for WBCQ program time sales. Signal has faded way down by 0055. 29-54 had previously been occupying the open slot half an hour earlier. After 0100, `Voice of the Report of the Week` with no WWCR QRM. (Tnx to Ramsey for WOR support this week) (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST) 

** U S A. 6855, March 3 at 0002 & 0220 chex, no signal from this WRMI. It`s been rather irregular lately. Hope it`s funxional tomorrow night, for the Winter SWL Fest special at 0300-0600 UT Saturday March 4. If not, maybe WRMI can spare a backup transmitter elsewhere (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 9930, Thu Mar 2 at 1949 on BST-1 caradio, WTWW-2 is very distorted as Ted is plugging programming including `Dave Ramsey` weekdays at ``1 pm Eastern`` --- no, it`s from 1:06 pm Central like right now during a break. Also `Theater Organ from the Ozarx`, at 1 pm Saturday, which in this case is approximately correct if Central (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 11520, March 3 at 0016, WEWN English is on now, after missing late last night, but poor-fair; a diocesan from Gallup IDs the program as `Catholic Answers Live` (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST) 

** U S A. 5935, March 3 at 0021, WWCR is VG with non-DGS guy ridiculing a UN program concerned with water security --- why worry? ``Our world is three-fourths water``. (OK, you drink the saltwater, not the rest of us.) Of course, it`s the `James McCanney anti-Science Hour`. DGS is still going weakly on 13845. Originally, 13845 & 5935 were from same transmitter, but now 5935 is #2 and 13845 is #3 paired with 4840 at night. I see that WWCR has already posted their DST schedule effective March 12 involving shifted frequency spans, at http://www.wwcr.com/transmitter-sched.html

Including 3215 starting at 0100 instead of 0200, so if WWRB still exists, will have to do their QSY to 3195 a real hour earlier, lest they collide with WWCR again (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 5025.02, March 3 at 0049, R. Rebelde is off (and so are the 5010 & 5055 leapfrogs with 5040), but there is a JBA carrier still here definitely on the hi side. Certainly not VL8K Australia, and the only other known 5025 station is R. Quillabamba, Perú but until now was slightly on the lo side; so can anyone confirm it`s up to here now? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 5995.009, March 3 at 0226, surprised to find a JBA signal here, or two, as (except for imaginary Algerian in HFCC at 04-06) MALI is the only one ever listed, but supposed to be in a 6-hour break from 00 to 06. Either there is a second signal or there is one which is wobbling. Mali is easy after 0600, except it`s like 1 percent modulated. Maybe I can match the precise frequency then (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 0432 UT March 3

Agenda DX 03/03/2017

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTE
Radio Korea International / KBS World Radio (1973)
Radio Brasil Central, Brasile (1950)
Radio Nacional de Bolivia 1390 Khz (1929)
Cheltenham R., Gran Bretagna 603 Khz (1993)
GEM AM, Gran Bretagna 945 Khz (1987)
Radio Brazil Central 4985 Khz (1950)
Radio Oriente 6188 Khz, Perù (1966)

Glenn Hauser logs March 2, 2017

** AUSTRALIA. 15340, March 2 at 1414, RBA English ID at S9-S7, 1415 into South Asian music and language. Why don`t they introduce in English which language it is? Aoki shows on Thursdays only, it`s Marathi. Simultaneously, RBA is on 11980 in English at S9+20/10.

15590, March 2 at 1417, another South Asian song is S9 to S9+10 here, and this turns out to be the third RBA transmitter, scheduled Thursdays only in Telugu during this quarter-hour. These are all aimed toward S Asia of course, but are some of the best signals on 19m now, so I wonder if they are arriving long-path without having to traverse much of the darkside (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CANADA. 3330-CUSB, March 2 at 0720, no signal from CHU again, while 7850-CUSB has a JBA carrier; yet relatively near SW station WBCQBS 7490 is propagating at S9, better than usual in the nightmiddle (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** GUAM. 9880.026, March 2 at 1220, Christian hymn, YL talking in Korean, S9 fading to S5. KSDA is scheduled this hour, so another station significantly off-frequency; amid 9880 usage by other stations, China, Romania before and/or after (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** KOREA NORTH [and non]. 5935, Thursday March 2 at 1325, Sea Breeze from JAPAN still here, barely audible in English, and with tone pulse jamming. Expect them to QSY soon, maybe escaping jamming for a few days (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** KURDISTAN [non]. 11600, March 2 circa 1300, no signal from Denge Kurdistane; but recheck at 1409, now S9+10 during big audio buzz, soon fixed with Kurdish talk mentioning Istanbul. Aoki shows site as Moldova (Pridnestrovye) at 0600-1500, but a beam switch at 1300 from 130 to 116, why? Then to Bulgaria at 1500, but Ivo has been saying it`s then France instead (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NEW ZEALAND. 9700, March 2 at 0714, VG S9+20 signal with news of Solomon Islands, typical RNZI sounders. Yes, surprised to find them back on this frequency. Online schedule still shows 11725 until 0758, then 9765, with 9700 supposedly only at 1059-1258 on the NNW antenna, a recent change from 11610. Maybe this explain the anomaly which may not recur:

``NB: Every month on the first Wednesday is Maintenance day at our transmitter site from 2230 to 0600 UT (Thursdays 1030-1800 NZST) During this period there may be interruptions to our programmes``. That period should have just finished (altho NZST is not in effect now, rather NZDST of UT +13 until April 2). (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** OKLAHOMA. RF 48 NTSC, March 2 at 1455 UT, KOCY-LP OKC is weakly visible in analog, with a little morning tropo enhancement; remains without cutting off the air for a few minutes before fading (Glenn Hauser, Enid, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** UKRAINE [non]. 11580, Thursday March 2 at 1330, RUI via WRMI, VG signal. News until 1335, nothing but about Russian military axion in eastern Ukraine, and remaining resistance to takeover of Crimea, for which Feb 26 will be the third anniversary. 1335 `Ukrainian Perspective` continuing anti-Russia news, shelling on Ukrainian positions. Why haven`t we heard about this hot axion, if really current? Refers to a Thursday February 23 press briefing, so I conclude this program is one week old, NOT from today! 

As previously noted, day-by-day file setup on WRMI server will replay an old one if a new one has not overwritten it in time. Others have noted outdated RUI programs on WRMI, from more than a week. In fact, I found the upload dates on the System D server for the Saturday and Sunday RUI broadcasts still showing as 7/2/2016! Listen whether they really sound that old from last July? And therefore always the same from one weekend to the next? At 1341 today, item about Ukrainian arms producers participating in an exhibition in Abu Dhabi (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. WORLD OF RADIO 1867 monitoring: confirmed first SW broadcast Thursday March 2 at 1230 on WRMI 9955, S9 over lite pulse jamming at first, but relative jamming level increases during the semihour as WRMI weakens; tnx a lot, Arnie! Yet WOR still 100% readable, including my error saying ``March 28`` instead of February 28 regarding Xmas Radio. // 6855 is S9 at start, but much higher local noise level on it. By 1322 during R. Prague, little or no jamming on 9955. Next WORs:

Thu 2130   WRMI 11580 to NE

Fri 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Fri 2230   WRMI 11580 to NE, 6855? to WNW, 5950 to S

Sat 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sat 0730   HLR 6190-CUSB to WSW

Sat 1530   HLR 7265-CUSB to WSW

Sat 2030v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sat 2330   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sun 0410v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sun 1130   HLR 9485-CUSB to SW

Mon 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Mon 0400v  WBCQ 5130v Area 51 to WSW

Mon 0430   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Tue 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Tue 0030   WRMI 7730 to WNW

Tue 1200   WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2130   WRMI 15770 to NE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2300   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Wed 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Wed 1030   WRMI 5850 to NW, 6855 to WNW

Wed 1415.5 WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Wed 2200   WBCQ 7490v to WSW

Thu 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 9395, March 2 at 0717, this WRMI is playing classic rock, Dylan, not // World Music on 5850, 6855, 7730. TruNews is gone! Until end of Feb, had been 24/7 on WRMI-6, 355 degrees, since Global 24 crashed a couple years ago. TruNews was initially on two more frequencies, then cut back to this one. TruNews still shows on the WRMI web schedule. Rather, Flowing Streams Ministry of which TruNews is/was the flagship program. Nothing on the TruNews website now about SW, or any radio broadcasts, but plenty of far-right extremist un-true slanted ``news``. Has Rick Wiles fallen out with WRMI, or simply a financial decision, SW no longer worth it??

9395, another check March 2 at 1421 finds more classic rock, ``Stairway to Heaven``; 1423 break at odd time for WRMI ID by Bob Biermann. Never announces the music so I have to identify it: then ``It`s My Party`` by Leslie Gore; 1430 a WRMI ID mentioning 9395 specifically; 1434 ``Desiderata`` (you are a child of the universe) --- NOT the parody, shux. 1438 ``Little Green Bag`` by The George Baker Selexion; 1440 ``The Monkees``; 1443 some doo-wop; 1446 ``Smile a Little Smile For Me, Rose Marie`` by The Flying Machine, etc., etc.

All the announcements are by Biermann, and suspect he is programming this now. Biermann`s regular hour is ``Your Weekend Show`` which started on TruNews, then expanded to various times (including mid-week) on other WRMI frequencies, so he has survived the sinking ship of TruNews. Surely a temporary filler until another full-time client for 9395 can be found. A golden opportunity to get some journalistically legitimate Public Radio service on SW!!

I look for anything about this on WRMI`s FB, but nothing found; rather this new show:

``Mirka Pratts February 22 at 3:12pm --- "LAS NOCHES CON MIRKA" a partir de mañana jueves a las 8:p.m en WRMI Radio Miami Internacional, vía Facebook donde grabaremos el programa que saldrá el viernes a las 5:00 p.m en América y el Caribe y a las 11:00p.m en Europa. Los esperamos!!!! 14 Likes2 CommentsLike · Comment · Share``

WTFK? Geez. 6-hour time difference anyway implies 2200 UT Fridays. Of course, both Europe and America have more than one timezone! So ¿de qué se trata, Mirka?? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 11520, March 2 at 0711, no signal from WEWN overnight English frequency, which is normally weak but audible. 5810 Spanish is inbooming a usual. On 25m, 11580 WRMIBS is good, while it is normally JBA at this hour. Strange reversal, due to propagation, or is 11520 really off? Also a JBA carrier on 11870 which used to be WEWN`s other overnight Spanish transmitter, and now nothing is scheduled there per HFCC and Aoki (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 820, March 2 at 1304 UT, another talk station with WBAP nulled as much as possible. Think I hear a traffic report mentioning Gary, 1306 UT into a show from Washington DC. Must be the Bill Press show as scheduled on WCPT, 820 for Chicago which is now Willow Springs IL, 5800/1500 U2 per NRC AM Log, ``Chicago`s Progressive Talk``, yet affiliated with Fox, among other networx! Other Chi stations are still in, including 780, 1000 and 1200 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 1200, March 2 at 1314, romantic music in Spanish over WOAI. No doubt it`s WRTO Chicago, maybe still Univisión América but not their new sports network as allegedly in the offing (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 1721 UT March 2

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Images associated with this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found
at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

I have decided to begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at

@GiellaW4hm https://twitter.com

Of course it will consist of little snippets of what's going on as Twitter
severely limits tweets as far as content length.

Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast on Facebook as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness
of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#51 Issued on Thursday March 2, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Wednesday March 1, 2017-

Solar activity was high.

Earth's magnetic field was actived.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 81.7 80.8 80.3.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 55.

Sunspot group #12638 was located near N16W55 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12640 was located near N08W18 with a simple  alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12641 was located near N14E19 with a simple beta magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12642 was located near N15E10 with a simple beta magnetic
signature.

A newly emerged but as of yet unnumbered sunspot group was located near
N46W07.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2017 there were 11 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.

In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many many many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.

The twenty four hour period three hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
at moderate geomagnetic storming to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 3 3 3 4
5 4 5 6.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 67 and 12,
which was at major geomagnetic storming to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A6.5.

The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field
was -1.5 nT south.

The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between +7 and -48.

The maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 709 and 383 km/s and
was emanating directly from (CH) coronal hole #792 (#788).

There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing (CH) coronal hole #792
(#788). During it's previous passage across the earth facing side of the sun
it produced minor (Kp-5) negative impacts on HF radio wave propagation.

There was a trans equatorial (geoeffective) directly earth facing (CH)
coronal hole #793.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.
Something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Glenn Hauser logs February 28-March 1-2, 2017

** ANGUILLA. 6090, March 1 at 0725, University Network is off! But something, Brasil? is a JBA carrier. By next check at 2031, day frequency 11775 is on as usual, S9+25 of suppressed/distorted modulation (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** ANTARCTICA. 15476, March 1 at 2031, no signal from LRA36, which Manuel Méndez, Spain reports is back on the air and JBA there after AWR 15480 closes at 2000. Believe it has been off all northern winter/southern summer. Probably have a new crew for fall/winter season, as station only seems active a few months per year. Normal schedule is approx. 18-21 UT M-F only (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1867, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** BRAZIL. 6180, Feb 28 at 0714, JBA carrier, but no blob in the 6150 range from RNA/RNB, while 11780 is OK, VG. Then I hear a blob in the 6165-6175 range, but can`t confirm a match to 11780.

6150v, 6120v, March 1 at 0614, by now the Brazoblobs are definitely off and so is 6180, completely. The engineers at Rodeador must have finally realized there`s a problem. 11780 is still good at S9 (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1867, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CANADA. 3330-CUSB, March 1 at 0626, CHU is inaudible, not even a carrier. Think it must be off as I should be able to detect it despite storm noise of S9+30 from eastern OK. 3485 NY Radio is audible, as is CHU OK on 7850-CUSB (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** COLOMBIA. 5910.160V, Feb 28 at 0709, Alcaraván Radio is here at the moment, mostly music --- in fact, since latest reactivation, I don`t believe I`ve heard any IDs or automated timechex; maybe just not listening long enough. Audibly varies as I try to measure it.

6010.144V, Feb 28 at 0711, The Voice of Thy Conscience is presumably the weaker one here, also varying.

5910.14, March 1 at 0618, Alcaraván Radio is S9+10 with tropical music. Another check at 0729, now measured on 5910.131, music at S8 vs storm noise crashes of S9+10/20 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA. 6060, March 1 at 0615, RHC English is absent, but still VG on 6165, in fact splattering 6160-6170; 6100 is OK, and 6000 is S9+40 but suptorted. 6060 seems to have been missing a lot lately both before 0500 in Spanish and after in English.

6100, March 1 at 0725, RHC is still on with dead air of S9+20, unlike all the other frequencies (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** OKLAHOMA. RF 48, Feb 28 at 1753 UT, KOCY-LP, OKC, analog video only, fades in briefly. Now I know that this one may or may not be on the air at any moment; only way to be sure it is off is to see it strong enough one moment, and cut off the next rather than fade out.

Doug Smith of W9WI.com responds to my previous comments: the reason why KOCY has a CP for 15 kW is that would be the max power once it`s finally converted to DTV --- (but that will never happen with all channels above 37 being evacuated). 

Also, he points out that the power and coverage of KOCO-7 are virtually the same as KETA-13; twice the power I quoted from his list was for KOCO`s backup rather than main transmitter. 

I also think Doug has the answer to why my KETA-13 reception keeps breaking up: QRM from second harmonic of KNID 107.1 on 214.2 MHz right in the middle of RF channel 13, running 14 kW from less than 10 miles away (Glenn Hauser, Enid, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A [and non]. WORLD OF RADIO 1866 monitoring: confirmed Tuesday February 28 at 2130 on WRMI 15770; probably // 6855, but JBA and reception on this will only worsen as we get into spring and summer, everything else being equal. Missed checking UT Wed 0030 on WBCQ 9330v-CUSB ---

(Since I was busy at Enid High School for ceremony dedicating the Currie-Gregg Observatory, in name of astronaut Dr Nancy Currie-Gregg. The dome and telescope were a project of my late science teacher Mr James Smeltzer, just after I graduated in 1963y. His daughter was also present and glad to selfie with one of his former students. See http://www.wewillfindstars.space --- But I digress.)

WOR 1866 also confirmed Wed March 1 at 1030 on WRMI 5850 and much weaker // 6855. I happen to be awake for this rare check. Also confirmed Wed Mar 1 at 1421, the 1415.5 airing on 9955 at S9+20, well atop pulse jamming, but 6855 is inaudible, faded out or off? Also confirmed Wed March 1 at 2200 on WBCQ 7490, fair, after a semiminute of dead air instead of ID. Also confirmed UT Thu March 2 at 0030, WBCQ 9330v-CUSB, fair.

WORLD OF RADIO 1867 ready for first airings March 2:

Thu 1230   WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Thu 2130   WRMI 11580 to NE

Fri 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Fri 2230   WRMI 11580 to NE, 6855? to WNW, 5950 to S

Sat 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sat 0730   HLR 6190-CUSB to WSW

Sat 1530   HLR 7265-CUSB to WSW

Sat 2030v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sat 2330   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Sun 0410v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND

Sun 1130   HLR 9485-CUSB to SW

Mon 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Mon 0400v  WBCQ 5130v Area 51 to WSW

Mon 0430   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Tue 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Tue 0030   WRMI 7730 to WNW

Tue 1200   WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2130   WRMI 15770 to NE, 6855 to WNW

Tue 2300   WRMI 9955 to SSE

Wed 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

Wed 1030   WRMI 5850 to NW, 6855 to WNW

Wed 1415.5 WRMI 9955 to SSE, 6855 to WNW

Wed 2200   WBCQ 7490v to WSW

Thu 0030   WBCQ 9330v-CUSB to WSW

(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 5850 // 6855 // 7730, March 1 at 0720, WRMIs are all playing the same World Music; but before 0700 I had noticed that 6855 was playing different WM (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 11965-12135, Feb 28 at 1548, WEWN 12050 is again out of whack with splatter spikes out to this range. So I notify Glen Tapley again at 1642 UT Feb 28, two weeks after last time:

``Glen, It seems that whenever 12050 gets tuned up it gradually goes bad again. Same is the case now Feb 28 checked around 1548 UT:

Modulation peak spikes can be heard between 11965 and 12135, gradually diminishing toward the edges of this range. Severe up to 12100 and down to 12030 at least, impacting 12095 BBC via Madagascar. BBC uses 12095 much of the day from additional sites, and earlier FEBC Philippines does too. And 12035 which at this time is AWR via Sri Lanka, i.e. two other Christian broadcasters. Your own signal on 12050 is so distorted that it must be driving away listeners rather than attracting them. Regards, Glenn`` 

No reply received, but by 1427 UT check March 1, 12050 is back in whack, no more splatter spikes --- for now (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. RF DTV channel 31, Feb 28 at 1608 UT, area tropo is up, this time from across the Kansas border. This is one which barely decodes for a split second showing text in English along bottom of screen, yet the PSIP ID which already shows with Bad signal is KDCU-DT 31-1 which is Derby KS (Wichita market), despite W9WI.com showing ``46.1`` as Univision and ``46.2`` as UniMas, but I can`t get #2 at all, nor #1 long enough to confirm network. Also, just reading the font on the Zenith STB PSIP, at least on an SD screen, I couldn`t be sure whether it was: KOCU, KDCV, KOCV; or KDCU, which has to be it. 

BAD signals on all these channels: 35, 36, 42, 45, 28, 26, 22, 20, 17, 12, 11, 10, 8, many of which correspond to Wichita. Only one other manages to decode briefly with my antenna toward OKC, after all: RF 19, 12-1, KWCH-DT (Glenn Hauser, Enid OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 0612 UT March 2

KBS World Radio Tests 6th to 9th March 2016

KBS World Radio English Service will carry out test transmission from March 6 to 9 ahead of the A17 shortwave frequency adjustment. Please tune into the 

following frequencies and send us your reception reports. Your feedback will help us greatly in choosing the best frequency option for the new season. Thank you!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Date Time (UTC) Frequencies(KHz) Target Area

March 6, 7 23:00 – 24:00 11,810 Europe

March 6, 7 14:00 – 16:00 9,525 India

March 8, 9 14:00 – 16:00 9,880 India

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Address

KBS WORLD Radio, 13 Yoigongwon-ro, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 07235, Rep. of KOREA

E-mail & Website

Language E-Mail Website

English english@kbs.co.kr http://world.kbs.co.kr/

LRA 36 on air

ANTARCTICA, 15476.0, LRA 36 Radio Nacional Arcángel San Gabriel, Base Esperanza, 2000-2015, 01-03. One hour ago Hugo López, from Santiago de Chile send me a wathasapp informing this station is on air with weak signal.

I tried here in Lugo  at 1930, but strong interference from AWR on 15480 in Arabic, but at 2000 this station closed and now I am hearing  LRA 36 carrier  on 15476.0 and very weak comments understandable due tu the signal weakness.

Manuel Méndez 

Lugo, Spain

Grundig Satellit 500, cable antenna, 8 meters.

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period March 3 - March 9, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.5-B1.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-95 f.u.
Events: class C (0-2/day), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-80

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3 - March 9, 2017


Quiet: Mar 6 - 9
Unsettled: Mar 3 - 5
Active: possible Mar 5 - 7
Minor storm:  0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:

Last night, a minor geomagnetic storm has been observed. We expect
geomagnetic activity decrease during the next week. First half of
forecasted week, we expect at most unsettled course (but tending to quiet
to unsettled conditions), the second half, we expect at most quiet
conditions only with isolated unsettled or singular active episode.
We do not expect any storming event next week.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3 - March 28, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on March 8 - 9, 12, 14, 26
mostly quiet on March 10 - 11, 13, 15, 25
quiet to unsettled March 7, 20 - 22, 24
quiet to active on March 3 - 4, 6, 16, 18 - 19, 23, 27
active to disturbed on March 5, 17, 28

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on March 3 - 5, (6 - 8, 20 - 22,) 23 - 26

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Agenda DX 02/03/2017

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTE
Radio Milano International, Italia FM (1975)
Korean Broadcasting System - KBS, Korea (1973)

SWLDXBulgaria News Feb.28-March 1

BELGIUM(non)   BRB Living Water Ministry Broadcasting on Feb.28 and March 1:
1500-1558 on  9650 unknown probably PUG to NEAs Korean Tue-Thu via Alyx&Yeyi
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/brb-living-water-ministry-broadcasting.html

BELGIUM(non)   Powerful signal of BRB Radio Sagalee Qeerroo Bilisummaa, Feb.28:
1630-1658 on 17840 ISS 250 kW / 130 deg to EaAf Oromo Tue/Thu/Fri via Alyx&Yeyi
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/powerful-signal-of-brb-radio-sagalee.html

FRANCE(non)   Good signal of Eye Radio via TDF Issoudun, Feb.28
1600-1700 on 15250 ISS 250 kW / 130 deg to EaAf Arabic/English*
*including other languages Dinka/Nuer/Shilluk/Bari/Zande/Lutoho
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/good-signal-of-eye-radio-via-tdf.html

GERMANY(non)   Strong signal of Radio Al-Mukhtar via MBR Issoudun, Feb.28
1500-1558 on 11670 ISS 100 kW / 125 deg to EaAf Arabic Tue,  ex 1500-1530
1530-1558 on 11670 ISS 100 kW / 125 deg to EaAf Tigrinya Tue is cancelled
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/strong-signal-of-radio-al-mukhtar-via.html

GERMANY(non)   Reception of Radio Xoriyo Ogaden via MBR Issoudun, Feb.28:
1600-1630 on 11970 ISS 500 kW / 130 deg to EaAf Somali Tue/Sat, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/reception-of-radio-xoriyo-ogaden-via.html

GERMANY(non)   Radio Voice of Adal via MBR Issoudun on March 1
1500-1530 on 11670 ISS 100 kW / 125 deg to EaAf Arabic Wed/Sat
1530-1558 on 11670 ISS 100 kW / 125 deg to EaAf Tigrinya Wed/Sat
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/radio-voice-of-adal-via-mbr-issoudun-on.html

GREECE   Reception of Voice of Greece on a single 9420 kHz on March 1:
0750-1305 on  9420 AVL 170 kW / 323 deg to WeEu Greek*tx#3 and off air
At 0808UT frequency annoncement but no signal on 9935 kHz or 11645 kHz
* nx in Arabic/Serbian 0753-0801, Spanish 0906-0910, English 1300-1303
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/voice-of-greece-in-english-on-9420-khz.html

GUAM   Good signal of KTWR Trans World Radio Asia, March 1
1527-1600 on 12120 TWR 100 kW / 293 deg to SEAs English Mon-Sat
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/guam-good-signal-of-ktwr-trans-world.html

NUMBERS STATION   S06s Russian Lady in 9-11-12 MHz, March 1:
0830-0836 on  9255 unknown secret tx site to Eu Russian CUSB
0830-0836 on 11530 unknown secret tx site to Eu Russian CUSB
0840-0846 on 12140*unknown secret tx site to Eu Russian CUSB
* co-ch weak 12140 KWT 250 kW / 070 deg to WeAs Dari Radio Free Afghanistan
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/s06s-russian-lady-in-9-11-12-mhz-march-1.html

OMAN   Good signal of Radio Sultanate of Oman, March 1:
from 1400 on 15140 THU 100 kW / 315 deg to WeEu English
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/good-signal-of-radio-sultanate-of-oman.html

PHILIPPINES(non)   R.Veritas Asia via Palauig Zambales & SM di Galeria, Feb.28:
1400-1427 on 11840 PUG 250 kW / 300 deg to SoAs Bengali, unregistered, ex 11825
1430-1457 on 11630 SMG 250 kW / 089 deg to SoAs Urdu, unregistered, ex 15330
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/radio-veritas-asia-via-palauig-zambales.html

USA   Good signal of WWCR-1 World Wide Christian Radio in AM mode on 15795, Feb.28
1215-1230 on 15795 WCR 100 kW / 046 deg to WeEu Arabic  Mon-Fri, ex FM mode Feb.27
1230-1245 on 15795 WCR 100 kW / 046 deg to WeEu Russian Mon-Fri, ex FM mode Feb.27
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/wwcr-1-world-wide-christian-radio-in-am.html

USA   Reception of WEWN-1 Global Catholic Radio, Feb.28
till 1300 on 11520 EWN 250 kW / 355 deg to SEAs English
from 1300 on 15610 EWN 250 kW / 355 deg to SEAs English
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/reception-of-wewn-1-global-catholic.html

USA   WRMI Interval Signal, announcement & Radio Africa Network on 21675 kHz, Feb.28
1355-1400 on 21675 YFR 100 kW / 087 deg to NCAf English tx#07 WRMI IS, announcement
from 1400 on 21675 YFR 100 kW / 087 deg to NCAf English tx#07 Radio Africa Network
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/usa-reception-of-wrmi-radio-africa.html

VATICAN(non)   Vatican Radio Papal Audience on 7250 kHz on March 1
0900-1000 on  7250 SMG 100 kW / 330 deg to WeEu Polish/Italian Wed
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.bg/2017/03/vatican-radio-papal-audience-on-7250.html


--

73!

Ivo Ivanov

QTH: Sofia, Bulgaria

Equipment: Sony ICF-2001D 30 m. long wire

Web: http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/

W4HM HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #50

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Images associated with this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found
at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

I have decided to begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at

@GiellaW4hm https://twitter.com

Of course it will consist of little snippets of what's going on as Twitter
severely limits tweets as far as content length.

Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#50 Issued on Wednesday March 1, 2017 at 1400 UTC

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Tuesday February 28, 2017-

Solar activity was low.

Earth's magnetic field was unsettled.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 81.7 81.6 81.0.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 39.

Sunspot group #12638 was located near N16W42 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12640 was located near N09W04 with a simple
beta magnetic signature.

Sunspot group #12641 was located near N14E32 with a beta- gamma twisted
magnetic signature capable of producing medium
sized M class solar flares.

One newly emerged but as of yet unnumbered sunspot group is located near

N15E24.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2017 there were 11 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.

In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many many many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.

In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.

The twenty four hour period three hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions of 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2.

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 15 and 4,
which was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A6.2.

The daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field
was -5.7 nT south.

The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between +1 and -16.

The maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 447 and 359 km/s

There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing (CH) coronal hole #792
(#788). During it's previous passage across the earth facing side of the sun
it produced minor (Kp-5) negative impacts on HF radio wave propagation.

There was a trans equatorial earth facing (CH) coronal hole #793.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.
Something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Agenda DX 01/03/2017

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTE
WBQN, Puerto Rico 1160 Khz (1975)
Radio Difusora Andina, Venezuela 1560 Khz (1983)
Radio Paranaiba, Brasile 910 Khz (1966)
XELP, Mexico 1230 Khz (1969)
XERG, Mexico 690 Khz (1959)
Radio Maria de Guadalupe, Costarica 1300 Khz (1999)
Radio Nickerie, Suriname 914 Khz (1977)
Classic Gold Belford, Gran Bretagna 792 Khz (1982)
Radio El Salvador 665 Khz (1926)
KUMU, Hawaii 1500 Khz (1963)
Radio Indipendence, Haiti 880 Khz (1953)
Radio Nacional Rosario, Argentina 1300 Khz (1953)
Radio Salta, Argentina 1160 Khz (1970)