Bclnews: W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2019-124

venerdì 3 maggio 2019

W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2019-124

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the

world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast.

It’s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet.

You can sign up for the daily email delivered global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast at

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

You can view the forecast online at

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast/messages

I'm a semiretired heliophysicist, troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In troposphere weather forecasting I have 46 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 31 years In physical oceanography 10 years.

You can contact me at thomasfgiella@gmail.com .

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W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum will begin later in 2019-2020 and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another “Dalton” type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate.

This would negate anthropogenic climate change (harmful man induced global warming) if it were occurring, (((((WHICH IT ISN’T.)))))

For more “TRUTH” on the socialist lie of anthropogenic climate change (harmful man induced global warming) check out https://wattsupwiththat.com and http://www.climatedepot.com

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent SSN <50.

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#124 issued Friday May 3, 2019 at 1330 UTC

GLOBAL (HF-MF 3000-30000 kHz- 300-3000 kHz) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Radio wave propagation condition “trend” on May 3, 2019- steady.

Radio wave propagation condition “trend” on May 4, 2019- improvement.

Radio wave propagation condition “trend” on May 5, 2019- improvement.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST g-

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater

Good- S7-9

Fair- S4-6

Poor- S1-3

Very Poor- S0

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 at night and S1-2 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S4-6 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S0-1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST g-

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

GLOBAL (MF) (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater

Good- S7-9

Fair- S4-6

Poor- S1-3

Very Poor- S0

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-

-East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km	S7-8
*North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km	S6-7
+South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km	S8-9

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-

-East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km	S7-8
*South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km	S6-7
+North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km	S8-9

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude	S2-3
Mid Latitude	S4-5
Low latitude	S3-4

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude	S2-3
Mid Latitude	S4-5
Low latitude	S3-4

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9 or greater

Good- S7-9

Fair- S4-6

Poor- S1-3

Very Poor- S0

This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software. X and O ray tracing is included.

I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s and continue to refine it in 2019.

But I’m sorry to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public.

It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab.

I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio

receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if

and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the

globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts

and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25

watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts

and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts

and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on

100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array

antenna.

The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave

propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable

by the average radio enthusiast.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space

Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational

institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation

forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using

taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF-MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW

public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this

1988-2019 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave

propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and

give me credit for it.

Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact

science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for

educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error

and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.