Space Weather Prediction Center
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jan 07 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 December - 06 January 2019
Solar activity was at very low levels on 31 Dec - 05 Jan and
increased to low levels on 06 Jan due to an isolated C1 flare at
06/1051 UTC from Region 2732 (N09, L=215, class/area Cao/090 on 03
Jan). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 05 Jan and normal to moderate levels on 01-04 Jan.
High levels were observed on 31 Dec and 06 Jan due to enhancements
associated with recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
The largest flux of the period was 2,020 pfu observed at 31/1930
UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels. Solar wind parameters began the period under a waning
positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from
approximately 520 km/s on 31 Dec to 290 km/s by 03 Jan with total
field at or below 6 nT. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to
unsettled levels on 31 Dec - 01 Jan while quiet levels were observed
on 02-03 Jan. At approximately 04/0420 UTC, total field began to
increase to a maximum of 13 nT at 04/1705 UTC which was indicative
of the arrival of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS. The Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT at 05/0200
UTC. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 565 km/s at 06/1350
UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly unsettled periods
late on 04 Jan, quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Jan, and
quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 January - 02 February 2019
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 07-19 Jan
with a chance for C-flare activity on 20 Jan - 02 Feb due to the
return of old Region 2732 (N09, L=215).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 07-12 Jan, 25-27 Jan and again on
02 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
07, 26 and 31 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16
Jan, 24-25 Jan and 01-02 Feb. G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 24
Jan. Levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Jan 07 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-01-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Jan 07 72 8 3
2019 Jan 08 70 5 2
2019 Jan 09 70 5 2
2019 Jan 10 70 5 2
2019 Jan 11 70 5 2
2019 Jan 12 70 5 2
2019 Jan 13 70 5 2
2019 Jan 14 70 5 2
2019 Jan 15 70 5 2
2019 Jan 16 70 12 4
2019 Jan 17 70 5 2
2019 Jan 18 70 5 2
2019 Jan 19 70 5 2
2019 Jan 20 71 5 2
2019 Jan 21 71 5 2
2019 Jan 22 71 5 2
2019 Jan 23 71 5 2
2019 Jan 24 71 20 5
2019 Jan 25 71 12 4
2019 Jan 26 71 8 3
2019 Jan 27 71 5 2
2019 Jan 28 71 5 2
2019 Jan 29 71 5 2
2019 Jan 30 71 5 2
2019 Jan 31 71 10 3
2019 Feb 01 71 15 4
2019 Feb 02 71 12 4
(SWPC via DXLD)
