“I just got home from a full day of medical treatment for my military service
connected disability. So this daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast late and
abbreviated.”
Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts
around the world.
Welcome to my daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast.
If you find
this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and
HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio
activities feel free to drop me a line and letting me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel free without advanced permission
to redistribute this "not for profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting
images associated with my "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my
Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and
at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather but without
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It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have
to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
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And last but not least I also post some snippets of solar,
space and geomagnetic weather goings on and images in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
.
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#215
Issued on Thursday August 2, 2017 at 2000 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are in a
steady state.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- poor at night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at
night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor
at night and poor to fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor
at day.
Keep in mind that almost daily during the northern hemisphere
summer season you will find that the 10 (11) meter bands will open via short
north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when
multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south
propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation
(TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night
and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,
12 (11)
meters- very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very
Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very
Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and
generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere
especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the public.
And
though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP,
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the state of Florida USA
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. And I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak if and when necessary.
The
hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels
received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF
shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts
(100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array antenna.
Please keep in
mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
