:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 27 February-05 March 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels.
The strongest flare of the
period, a B9, was produced by Region 2641 (N15,
L=041, class/area
Cao/100 on 28 Feb).
A ten degree long filament,
centered at approximately S21W35,
erupted from the solar disk around 27/1421
UTC. A subsequent CME was
observed in SOHO C2 imagery. Analysis and modeling
of the event
suggested no Earth-directed component was present.
On 05
Feb, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near
the location of
N10E33 around 05/1200 UTC. SOHO C2 imagery displayed
a faint, slow-moving
eruption that appeared to be associated with
the dimming. At the time of this
writing, analysis is ongoing to
determine if the likelihood of an
Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background to moderate levels on 27 Feb
and normal background
levels on 28 Feb. From Mar 01-05, an increase to
moderate to high
levels was observed in response to the onset and
persistent
influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels
from 27 Feb through the
beginning of 01 Mar. Unsettled levels
transitioned to G1 (Minor) storm
levels, with a peak activity level
of G2 (Moderate) by the end of the day on
01 Mar due to the onset of
southern polar connected, negative polarity CH
HSS. The CIR enhanced
total magnetic field strength to maximum value of 21 nT
by midday on
01 Mar. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from around 390
km/s at
the beginning of the day to 750 km/s by the end of the 01 Mar.
As
the CH HSS persisted, unsettled to G1 (Minor) activity was observed
on
02 Mar, quiet to G1 (Minor) activity on 03-04 Mar, and finally
quiet to
active conditions were observed on 05 Mar. Solar wind
speeds were still
elevated, mostly between 600-650 km/s, by the end
of the period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 06 MARCH - 01 APRIL
2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout
the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at high levels on 06-13 Mar, 19-20 Mar, 24 Mar, and
29
Mar - 01 Apr due to influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.
Normal to
moderate levels are expected on 14-18 Mar, 21-23 Mar, and
25-28 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to
G2
(Moderate) levels over the next 27 days. Unsettled conditions
are
likely on 09-10 Mar, 15 Mar, 18-19 Mar, and 24 Mar. Active
conditions
are likely on 06 Mar, 17 Mar, 23 Mar, and 01 Apr. G1
(Minor) conditions are
likely on 16 Mar and 30-31 Mar. G2 (Moderate)
conditions are likely on 28-29
Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic
activity are due to the influences of
multiple, anticipated,
recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for the
remaining days of the outlook period.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-03-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Mar 06 73
8 3
2017 Mar 07 73 5 2
2017 Mar 08
73 5 2
2017 Mar 09 73 8 3
2017
Mar 10 72 8 3
2017 Mar 11 72
5 2
2017 Mar 12 74 5 2
2017 Mar 13
74 5 2
2017 Mar 14 74 5 2
2017
Mar 15 74 10 3
2017 Mar 16 74
20 5
2017 Mar 17 76 15 4
2017 Mar 18
78 10 3
2017 Mar 19 78 8 3
2017
Mar 20 78 5 2
2017 Mar 21 78
8 3
2017 Mar 22 78 10 3
2017 Mar 23
78 15 4
2017 Mar 24 76 8 3
2017
Mar 25 75 5 2
2017 Mar 26 75
5 2
2017 Mar 27 75 5 2
2017 Mar 28
75 35 6
2017 Mar 29 75 30 6
2017
Mar 30 73 20 5
2017 Mar 31 73
18 5
2017 Apr 01 73 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
