:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 23 0514 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 16 - 22 October 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels with
the exception of 20 Oct
when an M1 flare was observed on the southeastern
limb. The M1 flare
occurred at 20/2328 UTC from Region 2685 (S09, L=131,
class/area
Hax/070 on 22 Oct) with an associated Type II (344 km/s) radio
sweep
and a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the east limb first
observed
at 21/0012 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. By the time Region
2685
rotated fully into view, it was a simple alpha spot group and
has
been quiet since the M-class event. No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 20 and 22 Oct with high
levels on 16, 19 and 21
Oct. Very high levels were observed on 17-18 Oct. The
largest flux
of the period was 56,839 pfu observed at 17/1535 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
The
period began under the weakening influence of a polar
connected,
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar
wind speed declined from approximately 550 km/s early in the
period
to near 350 km/s by late on 18 Oct. Total field was at 5 nT
and
below during this timeframe. The geomagnetic field responded
with
quiet to unsettled levels on 16 Oct and quiet levels on 17-18 Oct.
By
19 Oct, a weak connection with the positive polarity polar CH was
observed
resulting in a brief increase of solar wind speed to near
470 km/s and total
field at 10 nT. Solar wind speed again decreased
to nominal levels by early
on 21 Oct. The geomagnetic field
responded with quiet to unsettled levels on
19 Oct and quiet to
active levels on 20 Oct. A solar sector boundary crossing
into a
negative sector was observed at 21/0730 UTC followed by a
weak
enhancement from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind
speed
increased to near 490 km/s late on 21 Oct with total
field
increasing to near 10 nT. By late on 22 Oct, solar wind
parameters
had once again decreased to nominal levels. The geomagnetic
field
responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21-22 Oct.
FORECAST
OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 23 OCTOBER-18 NOVEMBER 2017
Solar
activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-Minor) on 23-06 Nov due to
potential flare activity from
Region 2685 and the return of old
Region 2683 (N13, L=111) to the visible
disk. From 07-18 Nov, only
very low levels are expected.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
likely to be at high levels on 25-26
Oct, 28 Oct-01 Nov, 08-10 Nov,
12 Nov, 15 Nov and 17 Nov with very high
levels on 27 Oct, 11 Nov
and13-14 Nov due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to
active
levels on 24-29 Oct, 01-02 Nov, 07-11 Nov and 15-17 Nov with
G1
(Minor) storm levels likely on 24-26 Oct, 07-11 Nov and G2
(Moderate)
levels likely on 25-26 Oct and 09-10 Nov due to recurrent
CH HSS
effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-10-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Oct 16 70
18 4
2017 Oct 17 70 10 3
2017 Oct 18
70 12 4
2017 Oct 19 72 12 4
2017
Oct 20 72 8 3
2017 Oct 21 72
8 3
2017 Oct 22 72 8 3
2017 Oct 23
72 5 2
2017 Oct 24 72 35 5
2017
Oct 25 72 45 6
2017 Oct 26 72
15 4
2017 Oct 27 72 15 4
2017 Oct 28
72 10 3
2017 Oct 29 72 8 3
2017
Oct 30 72 5 2
2017 Oct 31 72
5 2
2017 Nov 01 72 8 3
2017 Nov 02
72 10 3
2017 Nov 03 70 5 2
2017
Nov 04 70 5 2
2017 Nov 05 70
5 2
2017 Nov 06 70 5 2
2017 Nov 07
70 28 5
2017 Nov 08 70 30 5
2017
Nov 09 70 40 5
2017 Nov 10 70
28 6
2017 Nov 11 70 26 5
(SWPC via
DXLD)
