:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 0329 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 25 Sept-01 Oct 2017
Solar activity was at low levels. Region
2683 (N14, L=119,
class/area Hkx/280 on 28 Sep) produced the strongest flare
of the
period, a C1 at 26/0234 UTC. All active regions on the disk
remained
relatively quiet, simple and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed during the reporting period.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to very high levels.
Normal background levels
on 25 Sep increased to moderate levels on 26-27 Sep.
A further
increase to high levels on 28-29 Sep and 01 Oct, with a peak of
very
high levels on 30 Sep, was observed in response to activity
generated
by a positive polarity CH HSS. A maximum flux of 52,054
pfu was observed at
30/1635 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong)
storm
levels in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled
conditions on 25 Sep and quiet conditions at 26 Sep gave way to
G2
(Moderate) storm levels on 27 Sep due to the onset of the CH
HSS.
Conditions increased to active to G3 (Strong) levels on 28 Sep
as
wind speed continued to increase, reaching a peak of just above
700
km/s. Geomagnetic activity quickly decreased as wind speeds
gradually
waned over the next several days. Quiet to active activity
was observed on 30
Sep and quiet to unsettled was observed on 29 Sep
and 01 Oct. The period
ended with solar wind speeds near 450 km/s.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 02 - 28 OCTOBER 2017
Solar activity is expected to
be very low, with a slight chance for
C-class activity throughout the
forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at high levels on 02-05 Oct, 07-09 Oct, 12-21 Oct and
01
Nov; very high levels are expected on 27 Oct. Elevated flux
levels are
expected in anticipation of influence from multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs.
Normal to moderate levels are expected for the
remainder of the outlook
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels
on
02 Oct, 06 Oct, 08 Oct, 16-17 Oct and 28 Oct; active levels
are
expected on 07 Oct, 15 Oct and 26-27 Oct; G1 (Minor) storm levels
are
expected on 11-14 Oct; G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected
on 24 Oct and
G3 (Strong) storm levels are expected on 25 Oct. All
increased activity is
expected in response to multiple, recurrent CH
HSSs. Quiet conditions are
expected over the remainder of the
outlook period.
:Product: 27-day
Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 0329 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-10-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Oct 02 86
8 3
2017 Oct 03 86 5 2
2017 Oct 04
84 5 2
2017 Oct 05 86 5 2
2017
Oct 06 86 8 3
2017 Oct 07 84
12 4
2017 Oct 08 81 8 3
2017 Oct 09
75 5 2
2017 Oct 10 72 5 2
2017
Oct 11 72 25 5
2017 Oct 12 72
25 5
2017 Oct 13 72 25 5
2017 Oct 14
72 20 5
2017 Oct 15 72 15 4
2017
Oct 16 74 8 3
2017 Oct 17 74
8 3
2017 Oct 18 74 5 2
2017 Oct 19
78 5 2
2017 Oct 20 80 5 2
2017
Oct 21 85 5 2
2017 Oct 22 85
5 2
2017 Oct 23 85 5 2
2017 Oct 24
85 35 6
2017 Oct 25 85 52 7
2017
Oct 26 85 15 4
2017 Oct 27 85
15 4
2017 Oct 28 85 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
