Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion.
If you find this
"not for profit" daily HF radio wave propagation forecast and solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussion useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities,
feel free to drop me a line and let me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel free without prior permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute
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give me credit for it.
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.
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#241
Issued on Tuesday August 29, 2017 at 2000 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition trend- steady
state, which means neither improving nor deteriorating.
Northern
Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor to
fair at night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair to good at
night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair to good at night and poor
to fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair at
day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
10 (11) meters-
very poor at night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost daily
during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10 (11)
meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via
sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
favorably much longer propagation paths can open up on east-west paths. And last
but not least equidistant north-south propagation paths occur across the equator
via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15)
meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and fair to good at day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at
day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
During the
southern hemisphere winter season the higher HF bands of 10-20 meters (11-19
meters) close sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in
the northern hemisphere. But the maximum useable frequency (MUF) is higher than
in the northern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height
and is more dense.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1
over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and
generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere
especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced
based on the SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when
necessary.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up
at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB
RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Monday August 28,
2017-
Solar activity was high.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a
quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 83.7
81.6 82.6.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN)
was 17.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring
unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
As we move forward towards the next solar
minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily
SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months
will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24
to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also
forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to
the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult
to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Officially
there were 3 earth facing sun spot groups (SSG).
Sunspot group (SSG)
#12672 was located near N06W36 with a complex beta magnetic signature.
It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an
isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.
Newly emerged sunspot
group (SSG) #12673 was located near S08E78 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.
It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar
flare.
Newly emerged sunspot group (SSG) #12674 was located near N08E78
with a complex beta magnetic signature.
It was capable of producing a
small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar
flare.
There was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing
sunspot group (SSG) near
N10E01.
There were 3 small in size C
class solar flares,
C2.8,
C1.0,
C1.0.
There was 1
“partially” earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). It could
impact earth’s geomagnetic field in a minor negative manner on approximately
Friday September 1, 2017.
No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal
mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10
MeV (10+0) occurred (polar cap absorption).
No directly earth aimed
(geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO)
occurred.
No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic
filament eruption occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary
K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 1 1 0 0 0
1.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at quiet
geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 1 1 1 2 0 1.
The K(p) geomagnetic
indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
4
and 0,
which was at quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap
geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29-
active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400-
severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are
all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged energetic proton flux was at a
background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background
x-ray flux was at C2.84.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component
(Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-4.40 nT
south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time
index (Dst) ranged between
-29 and +1 nT.
The 24 hour period
maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
358 and 276
km/s.
The 276 reading is the slowest velocity in quite a long time. We
will see more and more of these slow solar wind speeds as we move further into
deep solar minimum.
There was a recurrent very large in size directly
(geoeffective) earth facing trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #822 (#818).
In approximately 2 days its high speed solar wind stream (HSS) will
connect to earth’s geomagnetic field and begin impacting it in a negative manner
in the form of possible minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming
conditions.
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The
propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property.
Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained
herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission
in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following
indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global
high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens
rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of
0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher
best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable
formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24
hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are
best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths,
fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is
best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.)
Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively,
greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.)
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
