Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and
HF radio wave propagation forecast.
If you find this "not for profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities feel free
to drop me a line and letting me know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
.
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profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio
wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
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.
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#212
Issued on Monday July 31, 2017 at 1500 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are
improving.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- poor at night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at
night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor
at night and poor to fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor
at day.
Keep in mind that almost daily during the northern hemisphere
summer season you will find that the 10 (11) meter bands will open via short
north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when
multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south
propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation
(TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night
and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,
12 (11)
meters- very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very
Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very
Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and
generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere
especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the public.
And
though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP,
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the state of Florida USA
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. And I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak if and when necessary.
The
hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels
received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF
shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts
(100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array antenna.
Please keep in
mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Sunday July 30,
2017-
Solar activity very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a
quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 69.4
69.5 69.5.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
2 more years,
+/- 1 year, the daily < 70 solar flux numbers are occurring
unusually early.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 11.
But on Monday July 31, 2017 unofficially (determined by me) the daily
sunspot number (SSN) was 0.
In 2017 officially there were 55 days with a
daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't
occur for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are
occurring now unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with
a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't
occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring
now is unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see
a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton
type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot
magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar
cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 1 newly risen and/or emerged and/or existing earth facing official sun spot
group (SSG).
Existing sunspot group (SSG) #12669 located near N18W36 with
a simple alpha magnetic signature.
Continued active far side recurrent
(which means that it has faced earth during the previous rotation of the sun and
will again) sunspot group #2665 will rise above the east limb of the sun
beginning on approximately Monday July 31, 2017. It could wreak havoc on earths
geomagnetic field in the form of solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME),
solar fade outs, energetic proton storms and geomagnetic storming.
There
was 2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG)
located near
N05W10,
N07E33.
There was no small in size C class
or larger solar flare.
No earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME)
related high latitude energetic proton storm occurred (polar cap
absorption).
No solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO)
occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1
1 1 1 0 1 1 0.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3-
unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7-
strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
5 and 0,
which was at quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour
period averaged background x-ray flux was at B9.21.
The 24 hour period
averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was
at
-1.15 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
-9 and +9 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
381 and 289 km/s.
There was an earth facing southern
hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #817.
It’s associated high speed solar
wind stream (HSS) could wreak havoc on earth’s geomagnetic field in the form of
minor geomagnetic storming conditions in approximately 1 more day.
There
was a recently emerged earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH)
#818.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
