:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jul 31 0238 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 24 - 30 July 2017
Solar activity was very low throughout the
summary period. A B1
flare, observed at 27/2136 UTC from a plage region near
center disk,
was the strongest event of the period. Region 2668 (N03,
L=311,
class/area Axx/010 on 25 Jul) decayed to plage by 26 Jul and
Region
2669 (N18, L=255, class/area Axx/010 on 30 Jul) remained
inactive.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph
imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal to high levels on 26 Jul, high levels on 30 Jul and moderate
to
high levels throughout the remaining days of the period. A
maximum flux of
18,800 pfu was observed at 25/1515 UTC. The
enhancements in flux levels were
due to persistently elevated solar
winds from a slowly-waning, positive
polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active
levels over
the past week. Quiet to active levels were observed on 24 Jul and
26
July; quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 25 Jul and 27-28
Jul;
the remaining days were quiet. Geomagnetic activity was
associated with the
influence of a slowly-waning, positive polarity
CH HSS enhancing solar wind
speeds. A steady decline in wind speed
was observed over the entire reporting
period from a peak speed of
705 km/s at 24/2219 UTC to a low of around 350
km/s by the end of 30
Jul.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
31 JULY - 26 AUGUST 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels
with a chance for
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 31 Jul - 13 Aug due
to the
return of old Region 2665 (S06, L=113) rotating across the
visible
disk. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
very
low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to range from normal background to high levels. High
levels
are expected on 01-03 Aug, 05-10 Aug, and 18-26 Aug; moderate
levels
are expected 31 Jul and 11 Aug; normal background levels
are
expected for 04 Aug and 12-17 Aug. All enhancements in electron
flux
are due to multiple anticipated recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic
field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels. G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely
on 04-05 Aug and again on
17-18 Aug; active conditions are likely on
31 Jul, 06 Aug and 19 Aug;
unsettled levels are likely on 01-02 Aug,
07 Aug and 20-21 Aug; quiet
conditions are expected for the
remaining days of the outlook period. All
anticipated enhancements
in geomagnetic activity are due to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 31 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-07-31
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jul 31 78
12 4
2017 Aug 01 78 10 3
2017 Aug 02
78 8 3
2017 Aug 03 75 5 2
2017
Aug 04 75 25 5
2017 Aug 05 75
18 5
2017 Aug 06 75 12 4
2017 Aug 07
75 8 3
2017 Aug 08 75 5 2
2017
Aug 09 75 5 2
2017 Aug 10 75
5 2
2017 Aug 11 75 5 2
2017 Aug 12
75 5 2
2017 Aug 13 75 5 2
2017
Aug 14 73 5 2
2017 Aug 15 70
5 2
2017 Aug 16 70 5 2
2017 Aug 17
70 15 5
2017 Aug 18 70 15 5
2017
Aug 19 70 12 4
2017 Aug 20 70
10 3
2017 Aug 21 70 10 3
2017 Aug 22
70 10 3
2017 Aug 23 70 5 2
2017
Aug 24 70 5 2
2017 Aug 25 70
5 2
2017 Aug 26 70 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
