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#182
Issued on Saturday July 1, 2017 at 1700 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are
degrading.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
Keep in mind that almost daily during the
northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10 (11) meter bands
will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E
(Es).
Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
correctly much longer propagation paths opens up on east-west paths.
And
last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via
trans equatorial propagation (TEP).
Received RF signal strength
scale-
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor
at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13)
meters- poor at night and fair at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and very poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and
very poor at day.
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham &
SWL
160-> 90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49,
41
30-> 31, 25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16,
15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now firmly in summer/winter
solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions.
This means
generally poor HF radio wave propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere
especially at day and generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the
southern hemisphere especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and
most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstice.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade,
as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from
the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in
the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
This HF Radio wave
propagation forecast is based on the NSA_Cap HF radio wave propagation
prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels
received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels
received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF
signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain
array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Friday June 30
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
71.6 71.5 72.1.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was
11.
Saturday July 1, 2017:
As SSG #12664 is now setting around the
west limb of the sun we are on the verge of one again returning to days with no
daily sunspot numbers.
In 2017 officially there were 42 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur
for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring
now unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is
unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see
a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton
type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot
magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar
cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 1 newly risen and/or emerged and/or existing official sun spot group
(SSG).
SSG #12664 located near N17W56 with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.
There were 2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing
sunspot groups (SSG) located near
N02W51,
S12W29.
No earth
facing C class or larger solar flare occurred.
No energetic proton
related day side high latitude solar fade out (SFO) (also related polar cap
absorption) occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was a no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
Saturday July 1, 2017:
But a recently released partial halo CME will strike and negatively
impact earth’s geomagnetic field in 1-2 days.
There was no earth facing
collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval
planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
0 0 1 1 1
0 1 2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3-
unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7-
strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
6 and 2,
which was at quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour
period averaged background x-ray flux was at A6.79.
The 24 hour period
averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was
at
-0.20 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
+2 and +26 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
344 and 316 km/s.
There was small newly emerged southern
hemisphere directly (geoeffective) earth facing coronal hole, #811.
Saturday July 1, 2017:
In the next 1-2 days a (HSS) high speed
solar wind stream emanating from CH #811 will connect to earth’s geomagnetic
field and begin impacting the earth’s ionosphere in a negative
manner.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
