Note that SF predixions have been revised downward from last week`s
some above 100. Previous report is below for comparison. gh
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Dec 07 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 November - 06 December 2020
Solar activity reached low levels this week due to C-class flare
activity. A total of ten C-class flares were observed this period.
Region 2786 (S17, L=343, class/area=Cko/1000 on 25 Nov) produced
three C1 flares, Region 2787 (N30, L=303, class/area=Axx/10 on 30
Nov) produced one C1 flare, and Region 2790 (S22, L=252,
class/area=Hsx/110 on 03 Dec) produced six C-class flares. The
largest event of the period was a C3/Sf from Region 2790 at 01/0427
UTC.
Multiple CMEs associated with flare activity and filament eruptions,
predominately off the east limb, were observed this week, however,
none were Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced on 30 Nov following a CME
off the NE limb on 26 Nov, and remained enhanced through 05 Dec. The
greater than 10 Mev proton flux reached a peak of 6.5 pfu at 01/0655
UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 02-03 Dec, with normal to moderate flux levels
observed throughout the remainder of the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 30 Nov, and
quiet on 01-06 Dec, under a nominal solar wind regime.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 December - 02 January 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 20-26 and 29-30 Dec. Normal to
moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Dec, with active levels likely on 18
and 24 Dec, due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 07 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2020-12-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2020 Dec 07 90 5 2
2020 Dec 08 90 5 2
2020 Dec 09 88 5 2
2020 Dec 10 88 10 3
2020 Dec 11 88 8 3
2020 Dec 12 86 5 2
2020 Dec 13 86 5 2
2020 Dec 14 86 5 2
2020 Dec 15 86 5 2
2020 Dec 16 84 5 2
2020 Dec 17 85 5 2
2020 Dec 18 88 12 4
2020 Dec 19 92 20 5
2020 Dec 20 92 8 3
2020 Dec 21 92 5 2
2020 Dec 22 92 5 2
2020 Dec 23 92 8 3
2020 Dec 24 92 10 4
2020 Dec 25 94 8 3
2020 Dec 26 94 5 2
2020 Dec 27 94 5 2
2020 Dec 28 94 5 2
2020 Dec 29 96 5 2
2020 Dec 30 94 5 2
2020 Dec 31 92 5 2
2021 Jan 01 90 5 2
2021 Jan 02 90 5 2
On Tuesday, December 1, 2020, 12:24:40 AM GMT+1, Glenn Hauser via groups.io <wghauser=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0516 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 - 29 November 2020
Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest event was an M4
X-ray flare from a region just around the SE limb. Associated with
the flare was a Type II radio sweep (765 km/s), a tenflare (240 sfu)
and a CME signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
29/1325 UTC. Modeling and analysis of the event suggested only the
far periphery had the potential to interact with Earth around 02
Dec.
Of the numbered regions currently on the visible disk, 2786 (S17,
L=343, class/area, Cko/1000 on 25 Nov) was the largest. It produced
several C-class X-ray flares as it rotated across the disk, the
strongest being a C3/Sf at 26/1253 UTC. The leader spot remained
stable throughout the reporting period while the intermediate and
trailer spots exhibited frequent, but short-lived new spot
emergence.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels throughout the reporting period, with the
highest flux of 2,430 pfu observed at 23/1700 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled. Numerous
periods of weakly enhanced Bt, combined with frequent sustained
periods of southward Bz, produced periods of unsettled conditions on
23 Nov and 25-29 Nov. 24 Nov remained quiet.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 November - 26 December 2020
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
R1-R2 (Minor - Moderate) radio blackouts on 30 Nov - 14 Dec, due
primarily to the flare potential from a region just around the SE
limb. Very low levels are expected on 15-18 Dec and low levels are
expected from 19-26 Dec.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected range from moderate to high levels. High levels are
expected on 20-26 Dec while moderate levels are anticipated for the
remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in electron flux
are due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. Potential influence from the periphery of
the 29 Nov CME may cause periods of active conditions around 01-02
Dec. Coronal hole influence is expected to produce active conditions
on 18 Dec, G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 19 Dec, and unsettled
conditions as influence wanes on 20 Dec. Weak interaction with the
current sheet is likely to produce unsettled conditions on 23-25
Dec. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0517 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2020-11-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2020 Nov 30 115 5 2
2020 Dec 01 113 12 4
2020 Dec 02 113 12 4
2020 Dec 03 113 5 2
2020 Dec 04 110 5 2
2020 Dec 05 105 5 2
2020 Dec 06 103 5 2
2020 Dec 07 95 5 2
2020 Dec 08 95 5 2
2020 Dec 09 92 5 2
2020 Dec 10 88 5 2
2020 Dec 11 85 5 2
2020 Dec 12 85 5 2
2020 Dec 13 82 5 2
2020 Dec 14 82 5 2
2020 Dec 15 82 5 2
2020 Dec 16 82 5 2
2020 Dec 17 85 5 2
2020 Dec 18 90 12 4
2020 Dec 19 100 20 5
2020 Dec 20 105 8 3
2020 Dec 21 105 5 2
2020 Dec 22 108 5 2
2020 Dec 23 110 8 3
2020 Dec 24 110 10 3
2020 Dec 25 110 8 3
2020 Dec 26 115 5 2
