Greetings to my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:
If you
find this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion
and HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio
activities feel free to drop me a line and letting me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel free without advanced permission
to redistribute this "not for profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting
images associated with my "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my
Facebook account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
My
“not for profit” daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather discussions as
well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather .
It's a NO
SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have to sign up by using an existing
email address and creating a
password.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#172
Issued on Wednesday June 21, 2017 at 1630 UTC
((((((((((The astronomical
summer/winter solstice began today July 21, 2017 at 1624
UTC.))))))))))
We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF
radio wave propagation conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio
wave propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and
generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere
especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio
wave propagation conditions are improving.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF
BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
80-60 (75-60)
meters- poor to fair at night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25)
meters- fair to good at night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair
to good at night and poor to fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and poor to fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor
at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at
night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good
at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at
day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
Received RF signal strength
scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham &
SWL
160-> 90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49,
41
30-> 31, 25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16,
15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
This HF Radio wave propagation
forecast is based on the NSA_Cap HF radio wave propagation prediction
software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up
at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB
RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Tuesday June 20,
2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a
quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 74.1
74.4 73.9.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 34.
In 2017
officially there were 42 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were 3 newly risen and/or emerged official sun spot groups (SSG).
SSG
#12662 located near N12W23 with a simple alpha magnetic signature.
SSG
#12663 located near N13W71 with a simple alpha magnetic signature.
Newly
risen SSG #12664 located near N13E63 with a slightly complex beta magnetic
signature capable of producing small in size C class solar
flares.
There was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing
sunspot groups (SSG) located near
N01W11.
No earth facing C class
or larger solar flare occurred.
No energetic proton related day side high
latitude solar fade out (SFO) (also related polar cap absorption) occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
0
1 1 0 1 1 0 0.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3-
unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7-
strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
5 and 0,
which was at quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour
period averaged background x-ray flux was at A9.33.
The 24 hour period
averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was
at
-1.26 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
-3 and +9 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
381 and 300 km/s.
There was a newly emerged earth facing
northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH), #809. It was possibly too far north to
impact Earth’s geomagnetic field in a negative manner. However it seems to be
growing southward and may ultimately become directly (geoeffective) earth facing
and impact earth’s geomagnetic field in a negative
manner.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
