:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 May 22 0235 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 15 - 21 May 2017
Solar activity was very low throughout the
reporting period. Region
2659 (N14, L=038, class/area=Dao/040 on 21 May 2017)
was the most
complex region; however, it has produced no significant
flare
activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available
coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal to high levels, with a peak flux of
13,000 pfu at
21/1710 UTC. Normal levels were observed on 15 May and
moderate
levels were observed on 16-19 May. In response to a
negative
polarity CH HSS, high levels were observed on 20-21 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Quiet
to
active levels were observed on 15 May. Conditions decreased to quiet
to
unsettled levels on 16-17 May under nominal solar wind
conditions. A SSBC
produced quiet to active levels on 18 May and
quiet to unsettled levels on 19
May. The subsequent onset of a
negative polarity CH HSS, with peak observed
winds between 700-750
km/s, produced unsettled to active conditions on 20 May
and quiet to
unsettled levels on 21 May.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 22 MAY - 17 JUNE 2017
Solar activity is expected to
be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flare activity throughout the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to range from normal to very high levels. Moderate levels
are
likely on 01-10 Jun and 12-15 Jun; high levels are likely on 22
May, 27-31
May, and 16-17 Jun; very high levels are likely on 23-26
May. Elevated levels
of electrons are in response to multiple,
recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to
observe normal background levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1
(Minor)
storm levels. Active conditions are likely on 22 May with
unsettled
conditions likely on 23-24 May due to the waning effects of
a
negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are then likely to
prevail
from 25 May-09 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime. An
increase to active
conditions is likely on 10-11 Jun from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Quiet
conditions are again likely on 12-13 Jun. A
SSBC is expected to cause
unsettled conditions on 14 Jun. A
subsequent negative polarity CH HSS is
likely to cause active
conditions on 15 Jun, G1 (Minor) conditions on 16 Jun,
then active
conditions as the CH HSS wanes on 17 Jun.
:Product: 27-day
Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 22 0235 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-05-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 May 22 74
12 4
2017 May 23 76 8 3
2017 May 24
76 8 3
2017 May 25 76 5 2
2017
May 26 76 5 2
2017 May 27 76
5 2
2017 May 28 74 5 2
2017 May 29
74 5 2
2017 May 30 72 5 2
2017
May 31 72 5 2
2017 Jun 01 72
5 2
2017 Jun 02 72 5 2
2017 Jun 03
72 5 2
2017 Jun 04 70 5 2
2017
Jun 05 70 5 2
2017 Jun 06 70
5 2
2017 Jun 07 70 5 2
2017 Jun 08
70 5 2
2017 Jun 09 72 5 2
2017
Jun 10 72 10 4
2017 Jun 11 72
12 4
2017 Jun 12 74 5 2
2017 Jun 13
74 5 2
2017 Jun 14 74 8 3
2017
Jun 15 74 10 4
2017 Jun 16 74
20 5
2017 Jun 17 74 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
