:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0107 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#
# Weekly
Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13
- 19 February 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels with only weak
background
flare activity observed. An 11 degree long filament
eruption,
centered near N08E02, was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
beginning
around 19/0525 UTC. A faint CME was observed off the NE
limb,
observed in LASCO C2 imagery, at around 19/0648 UTC.
WSA-Enlil
analysis indicated a possible glancing blow at Earth mid to late
on
22 Feb. No other activity was observed.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 13-14 Feb with moderate levels
observed on 15-19 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on
13-15 Feb, quiet
to isolated unsettled to active levels on 16 Feb, quiet to
active
levels on 17-18 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels on 19 Feb.
A
recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS)
became geoeffective early on 17 Feb affecting the geomagnetic
field
through late on 19 Feb. During this period, solar wind
speeds
generally ranged from 500-600 km/s, total field Bt peaked at 13
nT
early on 17 Feb while the Bz component reached a maximum
southward
extent of -8 nT early on 17 Feb. Phi angle was in a
predominately
positive orientation.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 20 FEBRUARY - 18 MARCH 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance
for isolated C-class activity throughout the
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at high levels on 20-27 Feb and 01-13 Mar. Normal
to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2
(Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Feb and G1 (Minor) storm levels on
24
Feb, 01-02 Mar and again on 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS
influence.
Active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 23 and
25 Feb, 03-05 Mar and
17 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Isolated
active conditions are likely on 22
Feb due to a glancing blow from
the 19 Feb CME. Quiet to unsettled activity
is expected for the
remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind
regime.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2017 Feb 20 0107 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-02-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Feb 20 82
12 4
2017 Feb 21 82 10 3
2017 Feb 22
82 12 4
2017 Feb 23 82 15 4
2017
Feb 24 82 20 5
2017 Feb 25 82
18 4
2017 Feb 26 80 10 3
2017 Feb 27
76 8 3
2017 Feb 28 76 30 6
2017
Mar 01 75 25 5
2017 Mar 02 75
20 5
2017 Mar 03 73 15 4
2017 Mar 04
73 15 4
2017 Mar 05 72 15 4
2017
Mar 06 72 8 3
2017 Mar 07 72
5 2
2017 Mar 08 73 5 2
2017 Mar 09
74 5 2
2017 Mar 10 75 5 2
2017
Mar 11 75 5 2
2017 Mar 12 75
5 2
2017 Mar 13 75 5 2
2017 Mar 14
75 5 2
2017 Mar 15 74 10 3
2017
Mar 16 75 20 5
2017 Mar 17 77
15 4
2017 Mar 18 79 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
BRIEF OUTAGES EXPECTED ON FEBRUARY 21 AND 22
On Tuesday,
February 21, 2017, SWPC will transfer its operations to its off-site backup
system to support building maintenance. Users will see intermittent, brief
outages while we transition to our backup system and then again when we
transition back to Boulder on Wednesday, February 22, 2017. The transition to
our backup system is currently scheduled to begin at 1600 UTC (9:00 am MT) on
February 21, and the transition back will occur at about 1900 UTC (12:00 MT) on
February 22 (SWPC Feb 15 via WORLD OF RADIO 1865, DXLD)
