:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0445 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 23 - 29 January 2017
Solar activity was at mostly very low
levels with low levels
observed on 28 January due to an isolated C2 flare at
28/2109 UTC
from Region 2627 (N06, L=193, class/area Dai/110 on 22 January).
An
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off of the
west
limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/2148 UTC but
was
determined not to have a geoeffective component. No
Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with high levels
observed on 23-24, and
26-29 January. The largest flux value of the period
was 2,495 pfu
observed at 28/1800 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity
ranged from quiet to active levels over
the period. Solar wind parameters
were indicative of background
conditions to start the period. Midday on 26
January, wind speed
began to increase as an isolated, positive polarity
coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Wind speed
reached a
maximum of 697 km/s at 27/0609 UTC and total field peaked at 16
nT
at 26/2330 UTC before gradually decreasing throughout the remainder
of
the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 23-24
January, quiet
to unsettled levels on 25, 28-29 January, and quiet
to active levels on 26-27
January.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 30 JANUARY-25
FEBRUARY 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight
chance for
C-class flares on 30 January - 04 February as Regions 2628
(N12,
L=174, class/area Dso/220 on 23 January) and 2629 (N15,
L=110,
class/area Dao/220 on 25 January) rotate across the visible
disk.
Very low levels are expected from 05-11 February. Very low
levels
with a slight chance for C-class flares are expected on
12-25
February with the return of Region 2627.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels likely
on 01-13, 16-18, and 22-25 February due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 30 January - 07 February, and again on 14-18 and
22-25
February with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on
31
January, and 01 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0445
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-01-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jan 30 76
10 3
2017 Jan 31 75 25 5
2017 Feb 01
75 20 5
2017 Feb 02 75 18 4
2017
Feb 03 74 15 4
2017 Feb 04 74
15 4
2017 Feb 05 72 15 4
2017 Feb 06
72 10 3
2017 Feb 07 75 8 3
2017
Feb 08 76 5 2
2017 Feb 09 77
5 2
2017 Feb 10 77 5 2
2017 Feb 11
77 5 2
2017 Feb 12 77 5 2
2017
Feb 13 78 5 2
2017 Feb 14 79
15 4
2017 Feb 15 81 10 3
2017 Feb 16
83 10 3
2017 Feb 17 83 8 3
2017
Feb 18 83 8 3
2017 Feb 19 85
5 2
2017 Feb 20 85 5 2
2017 Feb 21
85 5 2
2017 Feb 22 80 10 3
2017
Feb 23 80 15 4
2017 Feb 24 80
10 3
2017 Feb 25 75 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
