Solar activity forecast for the period January 13 - January 19,
2017
Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux
(1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.0-A9.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in
the range 65-85 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/period), class M (0/period), class
X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range
0-45
Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept.,
Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic activity forecast
for the period January 13 - January 19, 2017
Quiet: Jan 14 -
16
Unsettled: Jan 13, 17, 19
Active: Jan 17 - 18
Minor storm: possible
Jan 17 - 18
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity
summary:
For the Budkov observatory, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
to
Tuesday, Jan 17. This day, we expect active episode arrival because
of
positively charged equatorial coronal hole whose gulf is currently
visible
at the east edge of solar disk. We expect the active conditions to
the end
of forecasted period, the storming event is possible at most at Jan
17.
Next day, we expect active conditions persistence and, Jan 19,
partial
decrease to unsettled conditions.
Tomas Bayer
RWC
Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of
Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast
for the period January 13 - February 8, 2017
Geomagnetic field will
be:
quiet on January 16, 26
mostly quiet on January 13, 24 - 25
quiet
to unsettled on January 14 - 15, 23, 29, 31, February 5
quiet to active on
January 17, 20, 22, 27, 30, February 3 - 4, 6, 8
active to disturbed on
January 18 - 19, 21, 28, February 1 - 2, 7
Amplifications of the solar
wind from coronal holes are expected
on January 18 - 20, (21 - 24,) 26, (31,)
February (1 - 5,) 6 - 7
Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability
of activity enhancement.
- Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in
solar activity!
... Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable
...
Beware of paraskavedekatriafobia tomorrow.
F. K. Janda,
OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1MGW gave up, so OK1HH alone
again, compiling weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
