:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 19 0057 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 12 - 18 December 2016
Solar activity was at background levels
through the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached
high levels on 12-17 December and moderate levels on 18 December.
A
maximum flux of 10,187 pfu was observed at 14/1610 UTC.
Geomagnetic
field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the period. The period
began under the waning influence of a
negative polarity CH HSS with unsettled
conditions early on 12
December. The remainder of the 12th through late on 17
December saw
quiet conditions. During this time, solar wind speeds
slowly
decreased from about 550 km/s to near 350 km/s. Bt was less than
5
nT while the Bz component varied generally between +5 nT to -4 nT.
Phi
angle was in a mostly negative orientation.
By midday on 17 December,
winds speeds indicated a general increase
to about 500 km/s while Bt
increased to about 10 nT and Bz showed
rotation from +6 nT to -7 nT. Phi
angle rotated to a mostly positive
orientation. This increase in wind
parameters signaled the arrival
of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of
a weak, positive
polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field reacted with quiet
to
unsettled levels.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 19
DEC 2016 - 14 JAN 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low
levels with a slight
chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19 December and
moderate
to high levels for the remainder of the outlook period (20
Dec - 14 Jan).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 19-25 December, 03-07 January and again on 14
January,
with minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions likely on 21-22 December
and
04-05 January; all due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet
conditions
are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Dec 19 0057 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-12-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Dec 19 73
15 4
2016 Dec 20 73 15 4
2016 Dec 21
73 25 5
2016 Dec 22 75 28 5
2016
Dec 23 75 12 4
2016 Dec 24 75
12 4
2016 Dec 25 75 8 3
2016 Dec 26
75 5 2
2016 Dec 27 75 5 2
2016
Dec 28 77 5 2
2016 Dec 29 77
5 2
2016 Dec 30 77 5 2
2016 Dec 31
77 5 2
2017 Jan 01 79 5 2
2017
Jan 02 79 8 3
2017 Jan 03 79
10 3
2017 Jan 04 77 20 5
2017 Jan 05
77 22 5
2017 Jan 06 75 16 4
2017
Jan 07 75 14 4
2017 Jan 08 75
6 3
2017 Jan 09 75 5 2
2017 Jan 10
75 5 2
2017 Jan 11 77 5 2
2017
Jan 12 77 5 2
2017 Jan 13 75
5 2
2017 Jan 14 75 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
