:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 May 16 0334 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 09 - 15 May 2016
Solar activity was low and only C-class flare
activity was observed.
Region 2543 (S05, L=002, class/area=Dao/90 on 10 May)
produced a C7
flare at 14/1134 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.
Region 2544 (N21,L=296, class/area=Dao/150 on 15 May) produced
five
low-level C-class flares on 15 May, the largest being a C1 at
15/0502
UTC. Region 2542 (N12, L=357, class/area=Dai/150 on 09 May)
produced a
long-duration C3 flare at 15/1603 UTC with an associated
filament eruption
and partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that
departed off of the west
limb. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil
modelling determined that the CME did
not have an Earth-directed
component. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit. However, a
slight enhancement was observed on 15 May associated with
a
long-duration C3 flare and filament eruption near Region 2542. A
peak
flux of 2 pfu was observed on 15 May at 2315 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
very high levels from 09-13 May
due to the influences of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). High levels were
observed on 14 May and moderate levels rounded out
the week on 15
May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to G3
(Strong)
geomagnetic storm levels on 09 May due to the residual effects of
a
co-rotating interaction region and subsequent negative polarity
coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mainly quiet to unsettled
conditions were
observed for 10-14 May with a nominal solar wind. A
positive polarity CH HSS
became connected with Earths magnetic field
on 15 May causing quiet to active
conditions.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 16 MAY - 11 JUNE
2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low (B-class flares) to
low
(C-class flares) levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on
16-23 May, 30 May-02 Jun, and 06-10
Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected
for the remainder of the
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 16, 19-20 May due to
the influence of
recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams
(CH
HSS). G1 (Minor) storm levels are also expected on 29 May and
04-05
June due to the influence of negative polarity CH
HSSs.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 May 16 0334 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-05-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 May 16 105
23 5
2016 May 17 100 12 3
2016 May 18
100 8 3
2016 May 19 100 18 4
2016
May 20 100 26 5
2016 May 21 95
12 3
2016 May 22 95 8 3
2016 May 23
95 5 2
2016 May 24 95 10 3
2016
May 25 95 5 2
2016 May 26 90
5 2
2016 May 27 90 5 2
2016 May 28
90 15 3
2016 May 29 95 25 5
2016
May 30 100 10 3
2016 May 31 100
5 2
2016 Jun 01 100 5 2
2016 Jun 02
95 12 4
2016 Jun 03 95 12 4
2016
Jun 04 95 35 6
2016 Jun 05 95
30 5
2016 Jun 06 95 15 4
2016 Jun 07
95 5 2
2016 Jun 08 100 5 2
2016
Jun 09 100 5 2
2016 Jun 10 95
8 3
2016 Jun 11 100 15 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
