:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Apr 18 0325 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 11 - 17 April 2016
Solar activity was at low levels throughout
the period. Region 2529
(N09, L=342, class/area Eki/850 on 11 Apr) produced
all of the
C-class activity, the largest event a C5/Sf at 16/1958 UTC.
An
associated CME was observed off the west limb but was determined not
to
be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal levels on 11 and 12 April. High levels were reached from
13-18
April following coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
effects.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 11 April.
Unsettled
to minor storm conditions were observed on 12-14 April due
to effects from a
negative polarity CH HSS. Active conditions
continued into early 15 April but
decreased to mostly quiet levels
through midday on 16 April. A weak CME moved
through late on 16
April increasing activity to unsettled to active levels.
Quiet to
active conditions continued into 17 April as CME effects
subsided
and a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of an
approaching
positive polarity CH HSS.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 18 APRIL - 14 MAY 2016
Solar activity is expected to
be low with a slight chance for
M-class flares on 18-20 April. As Region 2529
exits the west limb,
activity is expected to decrease to very low levels with
a chance
for C-class activity from 21 April to 02 May. Low levels
are
expected to return from 03-14 May due to the return of old
Region
2529.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with the exception of
26-28
April, 01-03 May and 10-13 April following recurrent CH HSS
events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active
on
18-19 April followed with quiet to unsettled levels on 20 April due
to
effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected
on 21-22 April. Unsettled conditions are expected on
23-26 April with
isolated active periods likely due to a second
recurrent, positive polarity
CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected from 27-28 April. Unsettled to
active conditions are
anticipated on 29-30 April with minor storm periods
likely on 29
April as a negative polarity HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly
quiet
conditions are expected from 01-08 May with the exception
of
possible unsettled to active periods on 04 May due to an SSBC that
has
affected us the last few rotations. Unsettled to active
conditions are
expected on 09-11 May with minor storm periods likely
as a recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective
position. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 12-13 May followed
by possible unsettled to active conditions on
14 May as a CIR
impacts the Earth.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 18 0325 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-04-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Apr 18 102
12 4
2016 Apr 19 102 12 4
2016 Apr 20
95 8 3
2016 Apr 21 95 5 2
2016
Apr 22 97 5 2
2016 Apr 23 97
10 3
2016 Apr 24 95 12 4
2016 Apr 25
95 10 4
2016 Apr 26 95 10 3
2016
Apr 27 95 8 3
2016 Apr 28 95
5 2
2016 Apr 29 95 20 5
2016 Apr 30
98 15 4
2016 May 01 95 8 3
2016
May 02 95 5 2
2016 May 03 100
5 2
2016 May 04 100 12 4
2016 May 05
100 5 2
2016 May 06 95 5 2
2016
May 07 98 5 2
2016 May 08 98
5 2
2016 May 09 98 18 4
2016 May 10
98 25 5
2016 May 11 98 20 5
2016
May 12 98 8 3
2016 May 13 92
5 2
2016 May 14 92 12 4
(via DXLD)
