:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Apr 04 0340 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 28 March - 03 April 2016
Solar activity was at low levels on 28
March due to an isolated C2
flare from Region 2524 (N15, L=277, class/area
Eho/340 on 19 March)
at 0228 UTC. The rest of the period was dominated by
very low levels
as Region 2526 (S05, L=178, class/area, Cso/200 on 29 Mar)
was the
only spot group on the disk until the emergence of new flux on
03
April. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed
during
the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
(G2-Moderate) during the
period. From 28-31 March, solar wind
parameters indicated the influence of a
positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds
increased from
near 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 590
km/s by
early on 30 March before declining to a low around 330 km/s by
02
April. Total field slowly declined from 8 nT early in the period to
3
nT by 01 April. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
active levels
on 28 and 30 March with quiet to unsettled levels on
29 and 31 March. Quiet
conditions were observed on 01 April through
midday on 02 April. At
approximately 02/1344 UTC, a solar sector
boundary crossing occurred into a
negative (towards) sector followed
by an increase in total field to a maximum
of 18 nT at 02/1406 UTC
while Bz reached a maximum negative deflection of -14
nT at 02/1522
UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 540 km/s around 02/2131
UTC
indicating the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed
by
another CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to
major storm
levels (G2-Moderate) during the second half of 02 April.
By 03 April, solar
wind speed was in decline to around 400 km/s
while total field measurements
were near 6 nT. Quiet to active
levels were observed on 03 April.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 04 APRIL - 30 APRIL
2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for
the
forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels on
04,
06-10, 14-18, and 26-29 April in response to recurrent CH
HSS
activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
unsettled to active
levels from 05-08, 11-15, 24-27, and 30 April with (G1)
minor storm
levels likely on 13-14 and 30 April and (G2) moderate storm
levels
likely on 12 April due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 04 0340
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-04-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Apr 04 82
8 3
2016 Apr 05 78 15 4
2016 Apr 06
78 12 3
2016 Apr 07 78 8 3
2016
Apr 08 78 8 3
2016 Apr 09 82
5 2
2016 Apr 10 82 5 2
2016 Apr 11
80 14 4
2016 Apr 12 80 24 6
2016
Apr 13 80 22 5
2016 Apr 14 80
21 5
2016 Apr 15 80 8 3
2016 Apr 16
78 5 2
2016 Apr 17 78 5 2
2016
Apr 18 80 5 2
2016 Apr 19 80
5 2
2016 Apr 20 80 5 2
2016 Apr 21
80 8 3
2016 Apr 22 80 8 3
2016
Apr 23 78 5 2
2016 Apr 24 80
12 4
2016 Apr 25 80 10 3
2016 Apr 26
80 10 3
2016 Apr 27 80 8 3
2016
Apr 28 80 5 2
2016 Apr 29 82
5 2
2016 Apr 30 82 22 5
(SWPC via DXLD)
