:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 19 0246 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 12 - 18 October 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate
(R1-Minor) activity
levels. Low levels were observed on 12-14 and 18 October
with
moderate levels observed on 15-17 October. Region 2434 (S10,
L=163,
class/area Dki/260 on 17 Oct) produced a majority of
the
period's activity with 33 C-class flares and two M1/Sf
flares
observed on 15/2331 UTC and 16/0616 UTC. M1 flare activity was
also
observed from Region 2437 (S19, L=096, class/area Hax/060 on 18
Oct)
at 17/2023 UTC and 17/2042 UTC. Regions 2435 (S15, L=123,
class/area
Hax/030 on 17 Oct) and 2436 (N09, L=112, class/area Eai/210 on
18
Oct) also produced a few C-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal
mass
ejections were observed during the summary period.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 12-17 October with moderate levels
recorded on 18
October. The high levels were all due to an enhanced solar
wind
envirornment caused by coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor
storm
(G1-Minor) levels. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed
on
12-14 October as Earth's geomagnetic field was under
the
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. During this time frame,
solar
wind speeds reached a peak of about 615 km/s early on 13
October before
declining to about 450 km/s by the end of the 14th.
From 15-17 October, quiet
to unsettled levels were observed with an
isolated active period observed
late on the 17th. Winds speeds,
during this time frame, further declined to
reach a low of about 335
km/s late on the 17th. Field levels increased to
unsettled to minor
storm levels on 18 October as an equatorial, positive
polarity CH
HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Wind speed increased to
a
peak of near 480 km/s by about 18/1800 UTC, total field strength
peaked
at 12 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
extent of -8 nT
at about 18/0800 UTC.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 19 OCT
- 14 NOV 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class
(R1-R2
Minor-Moderate) flares likely through 29 October as Regions 2434
and
2437 transit the disk. Very low to low levels are expected from
30
October to 06 November. Activity levels are expected to be at
low
levels with M-class flares likely from 07-14 November as old
Regions
2434 and 2437 rotate back onto the visible disk.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels on 19-31 October.
Moderate to high levels are expected on 01-14
November as a series
of CH HSSs become geoeffective enhancing the solar wind
environment.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly
quiet to
unsettled levels through 02 November with isolated active
levels
possible on 29 October due to weak positive polarity CH HSS
effects.
From 03-14 November, activity levels are expected to increase
to
unsettled to minor to major storm levels (G1-G2 Minor-Moderate) as
a
large, recurrent, equatorial, positve polarity CH HSS rotates into
a
geoeffective position. Minor to major storm levels are possible on
03-05
November with minor storm levels possible on 08-10 and
14
November.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 19 0246 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-10-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Oct 19 125
12 4
2015 Oct 20 125 8 3
2015 Oct 21
125 12 4
2015 Oct 22 120 10 3
2015
Oct 23 120 5 2
2015 Oct 24 120
5 2
2015 Oct 25 115 5 2
2015 Oct 26
115 5 2
2015 Oct 27 110 5 2
2015
Oct 28 105 5 2
2015 Oct 29 95
15 4
2015 Oct 30 90 10 3
2015 Oct 31
85 5 2
2015 Nov 01 85 5 2
2015
Nov 02 80 5 2
2015 Nov 03 80
50 6
2015 Nov 04 80 40 6
2015 Nov 05
80 25 5
2015 Nov 06 80 12 4
2015
Nov 07 85 12 4
2015 Nov 08 90
20 5
2015 Nov 09 95 25 5
2015 Nov 10
100 20 5
2015 Nov 11 105 10 3
2015
Nov 12 110 8 3
2015 Nov 13 115
8 3
2015 Nov 14 120 20 5
(SWPC via
DXLD)
