:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 21 0538 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 14 - 20 September 2015
Solar activity was low from 14-16 Sep.
Activity increased to
moderate levels on 17 Sep when Region 2415 (S19, L=233,
class/area
Eac/240 on 19 Sep) produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/0940 UTC. A
long
duration C2/Sf flare observed at 18/0631 UTC was accompanied by
Type
II (850 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a coronal
mass
ejection (CME). Low levels were observed on 18-19 Sep but returned
to
moderate levels on 20 Sep. Region 2420 (N09, L=108, class/area
Ekc/270 on 20
Sep) produced an M1 at 20/0503 UTC as it rotated onto
the east limb. Region
2415 produced an M2/2n flare at 20/1803 UTC
accompanied by a Type II (1358
km/s) radio sweep as well as a 320
sfu Tenflare. An associated CME was
observed in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 20/1812 UTC and a WSA-Enlil
model run is in
progress to determine geoeffectiveness.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, an
enhancement was
observed in conjunction with the M2 flare from 20
Sep with a peak flux of 3
pfu at 20/2045 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels from 14-18 Sep due to a
combination of
effects from a CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS)
influence. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 19-20 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on
14
Sep due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS late
in
the day. Quiet to active levels persisted from 15-17 Sep as HSS
influence
continued. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on
18 Sep as CH HSS
effects subsided. Predominately quiet to unsettled
levels were observed on 19
Sep with the exception of isolated active
and minor storm periods from
19/0300-0600 UTC and 19/0600-0900 UTC,
respectively, in response to a solar
sector boundary change and a
prolonged period of negative Bz. A geomagnetic
Sudden Impulse of 27
nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer on 20 Sep at
0605 UTC
indicating the arrival of the 18 Sep CME. Unsettled to severe
storm
conditions were subsequently observed and then were followed by
the
onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
FORECAST OF SOLAR
AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 21 SEPT - 17 OCT 2015
Solar activity is expected
to be at low to moderate levels from 21
Sep - 02 Oct as Region 2420 makes its
way across the visible disk.
Low levels are anticipated from 03-05 Oct. Low
to moderate levels
are likely to return on 06 Oct when Region 2415 is
expected to
rotate back into view and remain elevated through the end of
the
forecast period (17 Oct).
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit although a
slight chance exists from 21-22 Sep when
Region 2415 rotates off of
the west limb and 06-17 Oct when it returns as it
now has a history
of producing protons.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high
levels from 21-27 Sep due to
influence from various CME and CH HSS activity.
Normal to moderate
levels are expected from 28 Sep to 01 Oct. Chances for
high levels
return from 02-11 Oct due to effects from a series of
recurrent,
positive polarity high speed streams. Predominately normal
to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm
levels
early on 21 Sep due to waning effects of the 18 Sep CME and CH
HSS
influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 22-24
Sep
although analysis is ongoing to determine if and when the 20 Sep
CME
will affect field activity. Unsettled to active levels are
expected
from 25-26 Sep due to influence from a negative polarity CH
HSS.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 27-30 Sep. A
series
of recurrent positive polarity high speed streams are expected
to
increase field activity to a baseline of unsettled to active
conditions
from 01-09 Oct with minor storm levels likely on 01 Oct
and 05-06 Oct and
major storm levels likely on 04 and 08 Oct during
peak influence as well as
co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs)
preceding the onset of the individual
streams. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected from 10-16 Oct with
isolated active periods
possible during periods of sustained negative Bz as
HSS influence
subsides. Unsettled to active levels are expected with a chance
for
minor storm periods on 17 Oct due to positive polarity CH
HSS
influence.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 21 0539 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-09-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 21 110
20 5
2015 Sep 22 110 12 3
2015 Sep 23
110 8 3
2015 Sep 24 105 8 3
2015
Sep 25 100 16 4
2015 Sep 26 95
14 3
2015 Sep 27 95 8 3
2015 Sep 28
95 8 3
2015 Sep 29 100 8 3
2015
Sep 30 100 8 3
2015 Oct 01 100
20 5
2015 Oct 02 95 15 3
2015 Oct 03
95 15 3
2015 Oct 04 95 45 6
2015
Oct 05 95 25 5
2015 Oct 06 100
18 5
2015 Oct 07 100 12 4
2015 Oct 08
105 50 6
2015 Oct 09 105 15 4
2015
Oct 10 105 12 3
2015 Oct 11 105
12 3
2015 Oct 12 100 12 3
2015 Oct 13
95 12 3
2015 Oct 14 95 12 3
2015
Oct 15 95 12 3
2015 Oct 16 90
12 3
2015 Oct 17 90 18 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
